What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?33 comments6060 forecasters
What will the U.S. score on the Rule of Law Index in 2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments2929 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?5% chance12020 comments4343 forecasters5%chance
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.54 (7.3 - 7.72)20 comments150150 forecasters7.54 (7.3 - 7.72)
What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?7.41 (6.57 - 8.35)151111 comments5757 forecasters7.41 (6.57 - 8.35)
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?10% chance633 comments4545 forecasters10%chance
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?60% chance1033 comments4444 forecasters60%chance
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?78.9 points (66.9 - 90.2)977 comments2424 forecasters78.9 points (66.9 - 90.2)