What will be the final value of the U.S. Democracy Threat Index for 2027-2028, conditional on control of Congress?0 comments1818 forecasters
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?113030 comments4646 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?7.5 (7.24 - 7.68)20 comments135135 forecasters7.5 (7.24 - 7.68)
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?7% chance21515 comments4242 forecasters7%chance
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?15% chance633 comments4444 forecasters15%chance
Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?57% chance1033 comments4444 forecasters57%chance
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)977 comments2323 forecasters77.4 points (65.8 - 83.7)
What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?7.12 (6.27 - 7.77)151111 comments5656 forecasters7.12 (6.27 - 7.77)