30 comments
45 forecasters
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?
Texas50%
California36%
Florida20%
14 comments
36 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance
38 comments
81 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203060%
204040%
205038%
0 comments
45 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
2 comments
36 forecasters
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
25%chance
0 comments
99 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.29
11 comments
56 forecasters
What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?
Current estimate
7.06
