0 comments
8 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
3 comments
39 forecasters
Will the United States drop below a 7 in the Democracy index by 2040?
48%chance
8% this week
29 comments
80 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203063%
204040%
205040%
12 comments
33 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance
0 comments
94 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.2
30 comments
44 forecasters
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?
Texas49%
California35%
Florida20%
2 comments
30 forecasters
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
25%chance
11 comments
55 forecasters
What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?
Current estimate
7.08
7 comments
20 forecasters
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?
Current estimate
78.2 points