0 comments
10 forecasters
Will both Kalshi and Polymarket assign >20% odds to the major-party nomination of an already twice-elected former U.S. president in the following years?
38 comments
81 forecasters
Will the US continuously be a Liberal Democracy until 2030, 2040, and 2050?
203061%
204045%
205040%
14 comments
35 forecasters
Will a prominent Democratic politician seek asylum abroad before January 20, 2029?
10%chance
30 comments
45 forecasters
If at least one US state secedes before 2071, which states will secede?
Texas50%
California36%
Florida20%
0 comments
94 forecasters
What will be the Economist Democracy Index for the United States for 2026?
Current estimate
7.37
2 comments
36 forecasters
Will the Economist stop classifying the United States as a democracy before 2030?
20%chance
11 comments
56 forecasters
What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?
Current estimate
7.09
7 comments
21 forecasters
What will be the US' score in the Freedom in the World Report for 2050?
Current estimate
78.8 points