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US Democracy Index

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Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

0 comments

AI Progress Essay Contest

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments

14 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?

20%chance

10% this week

9 comments

19 forecasters

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

Current estimate

20 Jul 2026

Key Factors

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments

12 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

25%chance

8.3% this week

21 comments

305 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance

44 comments

434 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

2 comments

8 forecasters

Will any coding assistant introduce project-wide context awareness by December 15, 2025?

99%chance

0.9% this week

30 comments

371 forecasters

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

1%chance

Contributed by the Nathan Young's Community community.

2 comments

3 forecasters

Will any of these AI companies be nationalized before Jan 1st 2030?

Any frontier AI company, "soft nationalization"75%

Other frontier AI firm, "soft nationalization"34%

OpenAI, "soft nationalization"25%