11 comments
19 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
Current estimate
17 Jun 2026
Key Factors
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
15%chance
10% this week
21 comments
310 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
44 comments
436 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%chance
7 comments
16 forecasters
In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?
resultNo
8 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
Contributed by the Gary Marcus's AI Forecasts community.
0 comments
1 forecaster
