Will The USDA Release A Gene Drive To Deal With An Agricultural Pest Before Jan 1, 2029?18% chance0 comments55 forecasters18%chance
Will a genetically engineered living biosensor be successfuly deployed in the field for ≥3 months before 2032?50% chance22 comments88 forecasters50%chance
Will England authorise the release of a GMM for non-human-medicine use before 2035?62% chance44 comments1414 forecasters62%chance
Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?42% chance0 comments66 forecasters42%chance
Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?24% chance12121 comments766766 forecasters24%chance
Will a species extinct for > 1000 years be brought back before May 1, 2026?result: no1273535 comments457457 forecastersResolvedNo
When will the first precision-bred organism be commercially authorised in the UK?23 Jul 2028 (12 May 2027 - 17 Jul 2029)44 comments1111 forecasters23 Jul 2028 (12 May 2027 - 17 Jul 2029)
When will pig-to-human xenotransplantation become a routine medical procedure?Apr 2042 (Jan 2035 - Oct 2047)633 comments1313 forecastersApr 2042 (Jan 2035 - Oct 2047)
By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?result: yes1234343 comments525525 forecastersResolvedYes
Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?result: yes101414 comments161161 forecastersResolvedYes
Will gene editing of human embryos for therapeutic purposes be officially approved by any country before 2035?80% chance222 comments1313 forecasters80%chance
When will epigenome editing be used in human embryos as a therapeutic approach for genetic diseases?Oct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)211 comment55 forecastersOct 2034 (02 Mar 2031 - May 2038)
Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?69% chance151717 comments156156 forecasters69%chance
How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?22.7 babies (3.87 - 251)351414 comments117117 forecasters22.7 babies (3.87 - 251)
When will any type of dog have a life expectancy at birth of 30 years or more?Nov 2073 (Dec 2053 - 2097)1222 comments3737 forecastersNov 2073 (Dec 2053 - 2097)
Will a clinical trial begin by the end of 2017 using CRISPR to genetically modify a living human?result: yes532222 comments144144 forecastersResolvedYes
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?22% chance332727 comments229229 forecasters22%chance
Will the community prediction be higher than 27.00% on 2026-03-13 for the Metaculus question "Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?"?result: no11 comment107107 forecastersResolvedNo
By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?67% chance528686 comments268268 forecasters67%chance
What percentage of survey respondents in the 2031 Eurobarometer on Food Safety will say they are concerned about GMOs?25% (21 - 31)11 comment1515 forecasters25% (21 - 31)
Will thale cress, maize, and soybean achieve 50% faster transformation-to-T1 seed timelines before 2030?49% chance11 comment1919 forecasters49%chance