4 comments
93 forecasters
How many months ahead of the rest of the world will the US be in the following AI benchmarks on January 1, 2027?
RE-Bench2.53
FrontierMath2.38
Top Capabilities Benchmark2.41
7 comments
35 forecasters
Will there be a leading AI lab with no internal safety team in the following years?
1 comment
17 forecasters
Will the following Chinese SME firms have a higher market cap than any of ASML, Applied Materials, or Lam Research in 2033?
SMEE44%
Naura31%
AMEC30%
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
37 comments
126 forecasters