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$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

2 2 comments

AI Pathways Tournament

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

0 comments

14 comments

85 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind13%

Microsoft5%

xAI3%

condition

17 forecasters

Conditional Trees: AI Risk

169 comments

243 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

Futurama30%

AI-Dystopia23.7%

Singularia18.9%

51 comments

173 forecasters

When will an original, wholly AI-generated feature film rank #1 on a popular streaming service?

Current estimate

01 Jul 2029

19 comments

34 forecasters

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

8 comments

23 forecasters

Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?

4%chance

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

43 43 comments

Five Years After AGI

37 comments

125 forecasters

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

When will an original, wholly AI-generated feature film rank #1 on a popular streaming service?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?

When will an original, wholly AI-generated feature film rank #1 on a popular streaming service?

When will a primarily-AI-made movie accomplish these types of success?

Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?

‘Five Years After AGI’ Focus Week

Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on January 1 of the following years?