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9
comments
Will ChatGPT introduce ads before the end of the following years?
14
comments
63
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
20%
Amazon
5%
Microsoft
4%
14 others
8
comments
74
forecasters
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?
🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
11
comments
81
forecasters
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?
95%
chance
Key Factors
More tournaments increase AI's chances
Bots' strong performance in recent Metaculus Cup
One AI victory suffices for prediction win
44
comments
434
forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%
chance
Contributed by the
JetBrains
community.
2
comments
8
forecasters
Will any coding assistant introduce project-wide context awareness by December 15, 2025?
99%
chance
0.9%
this week
Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup
8
19
19
comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
24
comments
93
forecasters
What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?
51
comments
173
forecasters
When will an original, wholly AI-generated feature film rank #1 on a popular streaming service?
Current estimate
02 Oct 2029
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