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9 comments

Will ChatGPT introduce ads before the end of the following years?

14 comments
63 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%
8 comments
74 forecasters

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
11 comments
81 forecasters

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

95%chance

Key Factors

44 comments
434 forecasters

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

28%chance

Contributed by the JetBrains community.

2 comments
8 forecasters

Will any coding assistant introduce project-wide context awareness by December 15, 2025?

99%chance
0.9% this week

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

8
1919 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
24 comments
93 forecasters

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

51 comments
173 forecasters

When will an original, wholly AI-generated feature film rank #1 on a popular streaming service?

Current estimate
02 Oct 2029