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10 comments
3 forecasters

Will ChatGPT introduce ads before the end of the following years?

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
66 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
14 comments
64 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind20%
Amazon5%
Microsoft4%

Announcing the new Higher Education Series!

4
0 comments
11 comments
84 forecasters

Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?

91%chance
4% this week

Key Factors

πŸ€– The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
8 comments
74 forecasters

What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?

51 comments
173 forecasters

When will an original, wholly AI-generated feature film rank #1 on a popular streaming service?

Current estimate
02 Oct 2029
20 comments
187 forecasters

What will global CO2 emissions (in tonnes) be in the following years?

44 comments
436 forecasters

RagnarΓΆk Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

30%chance