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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

13
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index

Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1313 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
33 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0 comments
84 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 9.10% on 2025-09-27 for the Metaculus question "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?"?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

84 comments
81 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?"?

resultYes

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
4141 comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025
0 comments
84 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Announcing the Metaculus Cup Fall 2025!

23
2323 comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025
22 comments
89 forecasters

Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?

resultNo