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US Democracy Index

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Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments

66 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

6%chance

6% this week

6 comments

8 forecasters

When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?

Current estimate

Jan 2061

8 comments

71 forecasters

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?

3%chance

7 comments

526 forecasters

Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?

resultNo

10 comments

34 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

30%chance

10% this week

508 comments

1.2k forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?

resultNo