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US Democracy Index

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Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

10%chance

5% today

Key Factors

0 comments

92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

17 comments

148 forecasters

Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?

9%chance

3 comments

28 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

22%chance

13.7% this week

0 comments

28 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

3%chance

0 comments

84 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

19 comments

14 forecasters

Will China conduct a test detonation of a nuclear weapon before 2028?

8%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments

97 forecasters

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.