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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1010 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
84 comments
81 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?"?

resultYes
0 comments
84 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment
47 forecasters

Is approval granted in the 2025 public vote regarding Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant’s second unit?

resultNo
1 comment
48 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 32.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?'?

resultNo
1 comment
45 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 28.00% on 2025-08-31 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?'?

resultYes
0 comments
49 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

5%chance
5% this week
1 comment
47 forecasters

Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?

Annulled
29 comments
254 forecasters

When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?

Current estimate
May 2043
47 comments
334 forecasters

Will a practical nuclear fusion reactor first be developed in China?

25%chance