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0 comments
101 forecasters

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

12%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
100 forecasters

Will diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and China on nuclear risk reduction increase in 2025?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
98 forecasters

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
97 forecasters

Will at least two of the United States, Russia or China mutually agree to decrease their nuclear stockpiles before 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

6 comments
8 forecasters

When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?

Current estimate
Jan 2061
8 comments
61 forecasters

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before December 16, 2025?

3%chance
2% this week
2 comments
53 forecasters

Will France announce a nuclear deterrent extension agreement with a European country before December 16, 2025?

12%chance
8% this week

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
11 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

33.3%chance
16.7% this week
11 comments
87 forecasters

How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years?

9 comments
68 forecasters

Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024?

ATACMS providedresult: No
ATACMS not providedAnnulled