Will the United States resume its air campaign against Iran before December 1, 2026?62% chance0 comments44 forecasters62%chance
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before December 1, 2026?0 comments33 forecasters%chance
Will the US carry out sustained or high-intensity attacks against Iran in these years leading up to 2032?233 comments2323 forecasters
How many complete losses of off-site power will the IAEA have counted at Ukraine's ZNPP since the conflict began, as reported for the situation as of August 20, 2026?26 losses (25 - 28)11 comment148148 forecastersResolved25 losses
Will the United States detonate a nuclear weapon in Iran before December 1, 2026?0 comments33 forecasters%chance
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?29.1% chance122424 comments132132 forecasters29.1%chance
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?result: no211 comment3232 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2026?25% chance233 comments3030 forecasters25%chance
How many total complete losses of off-site power will the IAEA have reported at the Zaporizhzhia NPP since the start of the war, as of July 25, 2026?22 losses (22 - 23)128128 comments126126 forecastersResolved22 losses
Will Iran's Bushehr Unit 1 reactor be publicly reported as offline (shut down or disconnected from the grid) at any point between July 11 and July 23, 2026?result: no129129 comments125125 forecastersResolvedNo
What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?141515 comments9898 forecasters
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?07 Sep 2030 (11 Jan 2028 - Sep 2035)41313 comments2424 forecasters07 Sep 2030 (11 Jan 2028 - Sep 2035)
Will Aalo Atomics confirm its Aalo-X Critical Test Reactor reached criticality before July 9, 2026?result: yes11 comment9696 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the US conduct a nuclear test explosion before 2030?7% chance121818 comments158158 forecasters7%chance
Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?55% chance455 comments5858 forecasters55%chance
Will the IAEA report that the Zaporizhzhya NPP has regained a second operational off-site power line before June 14, 2026?result: no9797 comments9595 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cumulative losses of all off-site power at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will the IAEA have reported as of June 14, 2026?17 value (16 - 18)8787 comments8888 forecastersResolved18 value
Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?1% chance66 comments4242 forecasters1%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?29.2% chance301515 comments285285 forecasters29.2%chance
How many missile test events will North Korea conduct in 2022 and 2023?>20 (>20 - >20)73333 comments5555 forecastersResolvedMore than 20
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?45% chance384646 comments478478 forecasters45%chance