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0 comments
100 forecasters

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

0 comments
20 forecasters

Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?

5%chance
4% today
0 comments
99 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

20%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

13 comments
60 forecasters

Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?

4%chance

Key Factors

14 comments
21 forecasters

Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?

10%chance
15% this week
0 comments
92 forecasters

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

5%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

5 comments
29 forecasters

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

22%chance
0 comments
31 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

1%chance
4% this week
10 comments
92 forecasters

What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

69 comments
503 forecasters

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%chance