What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?141212 comments9898 forecasters
How many complete losses of off-site power will the IAEA have counted at Ukraine's ZNPP since the conflict began, as reported for the situation as of August 20, 2026?26 losses (25 - 28)0 comments148148 forecasters26 losses (25 - 28)
How many total complete losses of off-site power will the IAEA have reported at the Zaporizhzhia NPP since the start of the war, as of July 25, 2026?22 losses (22 - 23)128128 comments126126 forecastersResolved22 losses
Will Iran's Bushehr Unit 1 reactor be publicly reported as offline (shut down or disconnected from the grid) at any point between July 11 and July 23, 2026?result: no129129 comments125125 forecastersResolvedNo
US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → 2030: Does China Have 1000 Nukes?211 comment1818 forecasters
Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites before September 1, 2026?5.9% chance111 comment1111 forecasters5.9%chance
If Iran has a nuclear weapon in 2030, what will Israel's 2031 GNI per capita be?76.6 k$ (61.6 - 100)44 comments88 forecasters76.6 k$ (61.6 - 100)
Will Aalo Atomics confirm its Aalo-X Critical Test Reactor reached criticality before July 9, 2026?result: yes11 comment9696 forecastersResolvedYes
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?2% chance20 comments2929 forecasters2%chance
Will the US carry out sustained or high-intensity attacks against Iran in these years leading up to 2032?233 comments1515 forecasters
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?1499 comments314314 forecasters
Will we reach 2035 without the detonation of a non-test nuclear weapon?77% chance303535 comments192192 forecasters77%chance
Will the IAEA report that the Zaporizhzhya NPP has regained a second operational off-site power line before June 14, 2026?result: no9797 comments9595 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cumulative losses of all off-site power at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will the IAEA have reported as of June 14, 2026?17 value (16 - 18)8787 comments8888 forecastersResolved18 value
Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?58% chance294848 comments128128 forecasters58%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments332332 forecasters30%chance
If the US does not pursue nuclear disarmament, how many nuclear warheads will it have in 2029?5200 warheads (4421 - 6514)922 comments3434 forecasters5200 warheads (4421 - 6514)
Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?57% chance455 comments5757 forecasters57%chance