Will the IAEA report that the Zaporizhzhya NPP has regained a second operational off-site power line before June 14, 2026?result: no9797 comments9595 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cumulative losses of all off-site power at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will the IAEA have reported as of June 14, 2026?17 value (16 - 18)8787 comments8888 forecasters17 value (16 - 18)
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?result: no9797 comments9999 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Taipower formally submit a restart plan for the Kuosheng (No. 2) Nuclear Power Plant to Taiwan's Nuclear Safety Commission before May 17, 2026?result: no100100 comments9797 forecastersResolvedNo
When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?30 Jun 2025 (14 Jun 2025 15:19 - >31 Dec 2025)88 comments1515 forecasters30 Jun 2025 (14 Jun 2025 15:19 - >31 Dec 2025)
Will there be at least one INES Level 3 or higher event in 2026 listed by May 1, 2026?result: no122122 comments120120 forecastersResolvedNo
How many distinct NATO member states will formally request Article 4 consultations citing the 2026 Iran conflict before May 1, 2026?0 member states (0 - 2)111111 comments112112 forecasters0 member states (0 - 2)
Will the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant experience another complete loss of external power before May 1, 2026?result: yes105105 comments105105 forecastersResolvedYes
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?result: no588 comments115115 forecastersResolvedNo
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?26% chance242222 comments329329 forecasters26%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?25% chance364545 comments468468 forecasters25%chance
If Russia detonates a nuclear device offensively before 2024, which cities will be ongoing battlegrounds at that time?152020 comments3333 forecasters
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before May 1, 2026?result: no1107107 comments107107 forecastersResolvedNo
By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?20% chance755 comments7272 forecasters20%chance
Will the United States use a nuclear weapon before May 2026?result: no-266 comments4747 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?result: yes322 comments1717 forecastersResolvedYes
Will the US carry out sustained or high-intensity attacks against Iran in these years leading up to 2032?233 comments1111 forecasters
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?75% chance0 comments3535 forecasters75%chance
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?1% chance10 comments136136 forecasters1%chance
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?result: no21616 comments2222 forecastersResolvedNo