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0
comments
100
forecasters
Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?
5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
0
comments
20
forecasters
Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?
5%
chance
4%
today
0
comments
99
forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
20%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
13
comments
60
forecasters
Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?
4%
chance
Key Factors
Short timeline reduces chances of inspection
Iran sees inspections as threat to sovereignty
Iran views the US's conditions for talks to resume as "illogical and unfair".
14
comments
21
forecasters
Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
10%
chance
15%
this week
0
comments
92
forecasters
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
5%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
5
comments
29
forecasters
Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?
22%
chance
0
comments
31
forecasters
Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?
1%
chance
4%
this week
10
comments
92
forecasters
What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?
69
comments
503
forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25%
chance
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