Question Feed | Metaculus

How many total complete losses of off-site power will the IAEA have reported at the Zaporizhzhia NPP since the start of the war, as of July 25, 2026?

22 losses (22 - 23)

126

Resolved22 losses

Will Iran's Bushehr Unit 1 reactor be publicly reported as offline (shut down or disconnected from the grid) at any point between July 11 and July 23, 2026?

result: no

125

ResolvedNo

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?

8% chance

146

8%chance

Will Aalo Atomics confirm its Aalo-X Critical Test Reactor reached criticality before July 9, 2026?

result: yes

96

ResolvedYes

When will an autonomous machine combatant in the Electromagnetic spectrum domain be fielded by a G-20 state?

29 Oct 2030 (23 Nov 2028 - Jun 2034)

9

29 Oct 2030

(23 Nov 2028 - Jun 2034)

Will the IAEA report that the Zaporizhzhya NPP has regained a second operational off-site power line before June 14, 2026?

result: no

95

ResolvedNo

US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan? → US-China war before 2035?

2

25

AI Military Disempowerment Pro Discussion

How many cumulative losses of all off-site power at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will the IAEA have reported as of June 14, 2026?

17 value (16 - 18)

88

Resolved18 value

Will the IAEA conduct an on-site inspection at any of Iran's Natanz, Fordow, or Isfahan nuclear sites before September 1, 2026?

13.4% chance

1

9

13.4%chance

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?

3% chance

1

21

3%chance

If these countries detonate a nuclear weapon by 2050, what proportion of those detonations will be countervalue?

3

34

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

26% chance

24

329

26%chance

Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?

40% chance

5

35

40%chance

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

66% chance

2

38

66%chance

Will the US strike Iran by the end of May 2025?

result: no

1

29

ResolvedNo

When, in 2025, will the United States or Israel attack an Islamic Republic of Iran nuclear facility?

30 Jun 2025 (14 Jun 2025 15:19 - >31 Dec 2025)

15

Resolved13 Jun 2025 03:00 UTC

Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?

61% chance

29

128

61%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

25% chance

37

468

25%chance

What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?

13

96

Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?

result: yes

3

17

ResolvedYes

Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?

result: no

5

115

ResolvedNo