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84 comments
81 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-09-10 for the Metaculus question "Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?"?

resultYes
0 comments
84 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

15%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

1 comment
47 forecasters

Is approval granted in the 2025 public vote regarding Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant’s second unit?

resultNo
1 comment
48 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 32.00% on 2025-08-30 for the Metaculus question 'Will North Korea test another nuclear device before 2026?'?

resultNo
0 comments
48 forecasters

Will Russia test a nuclear device before January 1, 2026?

5%chance
7% this week
1 comment
45 forecasters

Will the community prediction be higher than 28.00% on 2025-08-31 for the Metaculus question 'Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?'?

resultYes
1 comment
47 forecasters

Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?

Annulled
7 comments
33 forecasters

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

United States32%
Estonia30%
Poland30%
20 comments
89 forecasters

Will Taiwan vote to restart the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant?

resultNo
condition

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

65%
65%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

30%
30%
2
33 comments
16
16 forecasters
Conditional Trees: AI Risk