How many complete losses of off-site power will the IAEA have counted at Ukraine's ZNPP since the conflict began, as reported for the situation as of August 20, 2026?26 losses (25 - 28)11 comment148148 forecastersResolved25 losses
Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?11 comment11 forecaster%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?43% chance384646 comments476476 forecasters43%chance
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before September 1, 2026?result: no211 comment3232 forecastersResolvedNo
Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?15% chance355 comments4545 forecasters15%chance
When (if ever) will Russia conduct a direct military attack against a NATO member state?03 Aug 2030 (20 Jul 2028 - Jul 2036)41313 comments2121 forecasters03 Aug 2030 (20 Jul 2028 - Jul 2036)
What percent of global primary energy will come from nuclear fission or fusion power in the following years?141515 comments9898 forecasters
By 2035, how many new gigawatts of nuclear power will enter operation in the United States, as verified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, new state regulators, or other definitive sources?17.2 GW (15.8 - 18)122 comments1111 forecasters17.2 GW (15.8 - 18)
Will the US carry out sustained or high-intensity attacks against Iran in these years leading up to 2032?233 comments1616 forecasters
How many total complete losses of off-site power will the IAEA have reported at the Zaporizhzhia NPP since the start of the war, as of July 25, 2026?22 losses (22 - 23)128128 comments126126 forecastersResolved22 losses
Will Iran's Bushehr Unit 1 reactor be publicly reported as offline (shut down or disconnected from the grid) at any point between July 11 and July 23, 2026?result: no129129 comments125125 forecastersResolvedNo
Will Aalo Atomics confirm its Aalo-X Critical Test Reactor reached criticality before July 9, 2026?result: yes11 comment9696 forecastersResolvedYes
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?25% chance342727 comments231231 forecasters25%chance
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?40% chance612323 comments430430 forecasters40%chance
If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?29% chance311 comment3535 forecasters29%chance
Will the IAEA report that the Zaporizhzhya NPP has regained a second operational off-site power line before June 14, 2026?result: no9797 comments9595 forecastersResolvedNo
How many cumulative losses of all off-site power at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will the IAEA have reported as of June 14, 2026?17 value (16 - 18)8787 comments8888 forecastersResolved18 value
Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?result: no62828 comments102102 forecastersResolvedNo
Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?62% chance266 comments4040 forecasters62%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?29.2% chance301515 comments285285 forecasters29.2%chance