14 comments
85 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%
2 comments
30 forecasters
Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?
12%chance
3% this week
23 comments
81 forecasters
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
1.5%chance
1.3% this week