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🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap

5
0 comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3
10 comments
7 forecasters

Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?

Current estimate
Revealed in 2 hours
0 comments
88 forecasters

What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?

Low78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%

This question is closed for forecasting.

Platform feature suggestions

113
3.1k3.1k comments
Metaculus Meta
12 comments
215 forecasters

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

Current estimate
54.9M birds
0 comments
107 forecasters

Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?

10%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

2 comments
61 forecasters

Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?

40%chance
19% this week

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

8
4646 comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.

0 comments
11 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?

33.3%chance
16.7% this week
10 comments
18 forecasters

What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2025-26 season through the end of April 2026?

Current estimate
82%