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🏆 Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3 Winners and Recap
5
0
comments
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3
10
comments
7
forecasters
Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?
Current estimate
Revealed
in 2 hours
0
comments
88
forecasters
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
Low
78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)
18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)
3.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.
Platform feature suggestions
113
3.1k
3.1k
comments
Metaculus Meta
12
comments
215
forecasters
How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?
Current estimate
54.9M birds
0
comments
107
forecasters
Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2026?
10%
chance
This question is closed for forecasting.
2
comments
61
forecasters
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
40%
chance
19%
this week
Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup
8
46
46
comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025
Contributed by the
AI 2025 Forecasting Survey
community.
0
comments
11
forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on CBRN?
33.3%
chance
16.7%
this week
10
comments
18
forecasters
What proportion of tested influenza sequences will CDC report as influenza A during the 2025-26 season through the end of April 2026?
Current estimate
82%
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