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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup

4
1010 comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
33 comments
AI Pathways Tournament

Platform feature suggestions

112
3.1k3.1k comments
Metaculus Meta

🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!

4
0 comments
14 comments
85 forecasters

Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?

Google DeepMind13%
Microsoft5%
xAI3%

Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup

5
3939 comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025

Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video

8
1616 comments

Introducing Comments of the Week

15
1818 comments
condition

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

77%
77%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

30%
30%
2
33 comments
16
16 forecasters
Conditional Trees: AI Risk
23 comments
81 forecasters

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

1.5%chance
1.3% this week