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Forecasting & commenting winners of the Summer 2025 Metaculus Cup
4
10
10
comments
Metaculus Cup Summer 2025
$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1
8
3
3
comments
AI Pathways Tournament
Platform feature suggestions
112
3.1k
3.1k
comments
Metaculus Meta
🤖 The Fall AI Benchmark Tournament and MiniBench are now open!
4
0
comments
14
comments
85
forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind
13%
Microsoft
5%
xAI
3%
14 others
Suggest questions for the Metaculus Cup
5
39
39
comments
Metaculus Cup Fall 2025
Build Your Own Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes With Our Tutorial Video
8
16
16
comments
Introducing Comments of the Week
15
18
18
comments
condition
CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe
16
forecasters
if yes
if no
CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
77%
77%
CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
30%
30%
2
3
3
comments
16
16
forecasters
Conditional Trees: AI Risk
23
comments
81
forecasters
Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?
1.5%
chance
1.3%
this week
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