3 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
21 comments
309 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
30%chance
44 comments
436 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
30%chance
4 comments
21 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
Current estimate
30.6%
1 comment
20 forecasters
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?
Current estimate
157M $