26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
17% this week
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
1 comment
32 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?
1%chance
2% this week
2 comments
52 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
80%chance
20 comments
287 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24%chance
4 comments
15 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
Current estimate
19.2%
52 comments
279 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?
10%chance
100 comments
448 forecasters
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
55%chance