21 comments
299 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26%chance
44 comments
432 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
27%chance
2 comments
53 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78%chance
23 comments
413 forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33%chance
46 comments
79 forecasters
Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?
33%chance
100 comments
451 forecasters
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
50%chance
169 comments
245 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30.6%
AI-Dystopia25.7%
Singularia18.5%
1 comment
23 forecasters
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2025?
Latest estimate
75.5M $
This question is closed for forecasting.