14 comments
84 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
xAI5%
Microsoft5%
26 comments
42 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
22% this week
Contributed by the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey community.
0 comments
12 forecasters
Will an AI system be reported by OpenAI as of December 31st 2025 as having a pre-mitigation score of High or higher on Persuasion?
25%chance
25% this week
9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
2 comments
33 forecasters
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
15%chance
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama29.5%
AI-Dystopia25.6%
Singularia19.2%
14 comments
121 forecasters
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
resultNo