9 comments
40 forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
21 comments
299 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
26%chance
14 comments
95 forecasters
Will leading AI labs have their models evaluated for dangerous behavior before 2026?
Google DeepMind20%
Microsoft4%
xAI3%
4 comments
42 forecasters
Before 2029, will a new international organization focused on AI safety be established with participation from at least three G7 countries?
40%chance
44 comments
432 forecasters
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
28%chance
14 comments
121 forecasters
Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
resultNo
5 comments
45 forecasters
Will the CEO of OpenAI, Meta, or Alphabet (Google) publicly commit to specific limitations on their company’s AI system autonomy before January 1, 2027?
22%chance
7 comments
35 forecasters