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0 comments
89 forecasters

How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?

Latest estimate
33.5 users

This question is closed for forecasting.

$5,000 in Prizes for Comments in the AI Pathways Tournament: Submit Before November 1

8
66 comments
AI Pathways Tournament
0 comments
107 forecasters

At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?

35%chance

This question is closed for forecasting.

Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

10
22 comments

Contributed by the Unjournal Forecasting community.

0 comments

If the price of the highest-quality hamburger-imitating plant products fell by 10% everywhere, how many more/fewer chickens would be consumed globally in the year 2030 (as a +/- percent)?

Current estimate
3 comments
52 forecasters

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

80%chance
4 comments
14 forecasters

How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?

Current estimate
44.1 users
6 comments
27 forecasters

How many people will take the EA survey in 2030?

Current estimate
4164 people

Launched: The RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge | $10K in Prizes + Opportunities for Students

8
1616 comments
RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
21 comments
310 forecasters

RagnarΓΆk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

30%chance