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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)
10
2
2
comments
7
comments
92
forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit
80%
Government
20%
Non-profit
5%
3 others
5
comments
26
forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.87 paths
4
comments
21
forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?
Current estimate
31.2%
26
comments
44
forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%
chance
12
comments
105
forecasters
At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?
25%
chance
46
comments
79
forecasters
Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?
33%
chance
7
comments
16
forecasters
If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?
community
5011
result
Annulled
27
comments
1.3k
forecasters
Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?
result
Yes
4
comments
24
forecasters
How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031?
Current estimate
480 $
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