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Metaculus Community Giving Report (2023 – August 2025)

10
22 comments
7 comments
92 forecasters

What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?

For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
5 comments
26 forecasters

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

Current estimate
5.87 paths
4 comments
21 forecasters

In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?

Current estimate
31.2%
26 comments
44 forecasters

Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?

11%chance
12 comments
105 forecasters

At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?

25%chance
46 comments
79 forecasters

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

33%chance
7 comments
16 forecasters

If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?

community
5011
result
Annulled
27 comments
1.3k forecasters

Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?

resultYes
4 comments
24 forecasters

How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031?

Current estimate
480 $