0 comments
89 forecasters
How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?
Latest estimate
33.4 users
This question is closed for forecasting.
4 comments
14 forecasters
How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?
Current estimate
46 users
7 comments
19 forecasters
In 2027, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?
Current estimate
5329 $/life saved
7 comments
95 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit83%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
46 comments
79 forecasters
Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?
30%chance
5 comments
26 forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.16 paths
4 comments
17 forecasters