26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
7 comments
91 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
6 comments
16 forecasters
If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?
Latest estimate
5011
This question is closed for forecasting.
27 comments
1.3k forecasters
Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?
resultYes
4 comments
26 forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.7 paths
4 comments
24 forecasters
How much will GiveWell estimate as the cost equivalent to saving a life at the end of 2031?
Current estimate
480 $