Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.322 comments
Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?35% chance0 comments33 forecasters35%chance
Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?41.5% chance0 comments11 forecaster41.5%chance
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund plant-based hamburger R&D have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0 comments
Predict the median of experts' beliefs over "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?"0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)0 comments22 forecasters0.726 0-100% stated probability (0.684 - 0.767)
By 2030, will 50% or more of GiveWell's top charities include a WELLBY-based cost-effectiveness analysis alongside or instead of DALY-based analysis?0 comments%chance
Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?result: yes552727 comments1.3k1.3k forecastersResolvedYes
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?11% chance42626 comments5353 forecasters11%chance
What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?15.7 (9.39 - >16)577 comments5858 forecastersResolved16
How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?22.2k (21.5k - 23.1k)799 comments3131 forecastersResolved21.99k
Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?result: no112323 comments6565 forecastersResolvedNo
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?result: yes101010 comments3535 forecastersResolvedYes
How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?11.1M (9.31M - 13.3M)333 comments3737 forecastersResolved10.831405M
How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?1.41M (1.24M - 1.58M)71010 comments3838 forecastersResolved1.501867M
Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?result: no51111 comments6262 forecastersResolvedNo
In 2027, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?5059 $/life saved (3716 - 7743)877 comments2020 forecasters5059 $/life saved (3716 - 7743)
How many posts will there be on the Effective Altruism Forum in 2020?1618 (1593 - 1643)21010 comments3232 forecastersResolved1625
Will Sam Bankman-Fried have donated $1bn 2021 USD to charitable causes before 2031?0.1% chance163737 comments162162 forecasters0.1%chance
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Animal Welfare in 2030?89.2M $ (40.5M - 184M)211 comment1616 forecasters89.2M $ (40.5M - 184M)
How many of the top 50 Effective Altruism Forum users by karma as of June 2021 will be active in 2026?49 users (46 - 50)51010 comments1414 forecasters49 users (46 - 50)