4 comments
15 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
Current estimate
17.3%
7 comments
92 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
46 comments
79 forecasters
Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?
33%chance
169 comments
245 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama29.9%
AI-Dystopia26.3%
Singularia18.3%
1 comment
20 forecasters
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?
Current estimate
142M $