26 comments
43 forecasters
Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?
11%chance
9% this week
169 comments
243 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama30%
AI-Dystopia23.7%
Singularia18.9%
7 comments
91 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit80%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
4 comments
15 forecasters
In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to cause prioritization?
Current estimate
19.2%
100 comments
448 forecasters
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
55%chance
6 comments
16 forecasters
If a small inducement prize platform is created for effective altruists, how many dollars of prize money will be disbursed within a year?
Latest estimate
5011
This question is closed for forecasting.