7 comments
95 forecasters
What type of research group will develop the first transformative AI?
For-profit83%
Government20%
Non-profit5%
1 comment
20 forecasters
How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards AI risk reduction in 2030?
Current estimate
157M $
169 comments
247 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will come to pass?
Futurama29.1%
AI-Dystopia25.3%
Singularia20.3%
46 comments
79 forecasters
Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?
30%chance
5 comments
26 forecasters
How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?
Current estimate
5.89 paths