Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?40173173 comments281281 forecasters
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?result: no171818 comments113113 forecastersResolvedNo
When will GPT-4 be announced?18 Mar 2023 17:39 (13 Mar 2023 17:35 - 29 Mar 2023)201717 comments129129 forecastersResolved14 Mar 2023 11:00 UTC
If tested, would the most powerful quesion-answering AI system as of 2022-06-01 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 5th graders?19% chance1066 comments5454 forecastersAmbiguous