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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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When will a space-based data center first become operational?

Feb 2036 (03 Mar 2031 - Jan 2044)

3
1616 comments
18
18 forecasters
Feb 2036
(03 Mar 2031 - Jan 2044)

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

10
11 comment
26
26 forecasters

Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?

33% chance

5
0 comments
19
19 forecasters
33%chance

Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

3% chance

2
0 comments
23
23 forecasters
3%chance

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

16
4343 comments
69
69 forecasters

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

57.2% (23.4 - 82.6)

2
44 comments
11
11 forecasters
57.2%
(23.4 - 82.6)

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

result: no

27
1414 comments
132
132 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

33% chance

85
8484 comments
646
646 forecasters
33%chance

An attempt to prove reaction-less EM drive technology in space?

50% chance

17
2828 comments
96
96 forecasters
Ambiguous

Tech Futures - 52 Conversation Starters

2
33 comments

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10
11 comment

Space Sector โ€˜Greenificationโ€™

10
11 comment

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

12
0 comments

The Future of Human Spaceflight

10
0 comments

Announcing the Sagan Space Tournament

19
1313 comments

Our Life Underneath a Chaotic Orbital Environment: The Relationship Between Space Debris and Space Utilization

11
0 comments

The Global Push to Return to the Moon: Predicting the Lunar Landings and Trends of the 2020s

10
0 comments

Private Citizen Space Travel: Participation, Place, and Price

8
0 comments

Orbital Allies: How Space Technology Fuels Sustainable Development and Climate Action

9
11 comment