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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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When will a space-based data center first become operational?

Jun 2037 (Jun 2032 - May 2046)

3
1616 comments
17
17 forecasters
Jun 2037
(Jun 2032 - May 2046)

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

40% chance

85
8484 comments
645
645 forecasters
40%chance

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

10
11 comment
26
26 forecasters

Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

10% chance

2
0 comments
25
25 forecasters
10%chance

Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?

33% chance

5
0 comments
20
20 forecasters
33%chance

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?

result: no

24
1010 comments
100
100 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

16
4343 comments
68
68 forecasters

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

57.2% (23.4 - 82.6)

2
44 comments
11
11 forecasters
57.2%
(23.4 - 82.6)

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

result: no

27
1414 comments
132
132 forecasters
ResolvedNo

An attempt to prove reaction-less EM drive technology in space?

50% chance

17
2828 comments
96
96 forecasters
Ambiguous

Tech Futures - 52 Conversation Starters

2
33 comments

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10
11 comment

Space Sector โ€˜Greenificationโ€™

10
11 comment

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

12
0 comments

The Future of Human Spaceflight

10
0 comments

Announcing the Sagan Space Tournament

19
1313 comments

Our Life Underneath a Chaotic Orbital Environment: The Relationship Between Space Debris and Space Utilization

11
0 comments

The Global Push to Return to the Moon: Predicting the Lunar Landings and Trends of the 2020s

10
0 comments

Private Citizen Space Travel: Participation, Place, and Price

8
0 comments

Orbital Allies: How Space Technology Fuels Sustainable Development and Climate Action

9
11 comment