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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will space-based technology enable effective enforcement of the UN High Seas Treaty to reduce marine pollution and protect marine ecosystems before 2027?

5.2% chance

5
0 comments
20
20 forecasters
5.2%chance

When will a space-based data center first become operational?

Jun 2035 (23 Jan 2031 - Nov 2042)

3
1616 comments
18
18 forecasters
Jun 2035
(23 Jan 2031 - Nov 2042)

Which country will be the first to administer more territory off Earth than on it?

16
4343 comments
70
70 forecasters

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

10
11 comment
26
26 forecasters

Will a proof-of-concept experiment for space-based carbon capture be successfully completed before 2031?

3% chance

2
0 comments
23
23 forecasters
3%chance

What percent of spacecraft will satisfy post mission disposal regulations in the decade of 2020-2029?

48.6% (21.6 - 83.9)

2
44 comments
11
11 forecasters
48.6%
(21.6 - 83.9)

To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?

result: no

27
1414 comments
132
132 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

33% chance

85
8484 comments
649
649 forecasters
33%chance

An attempt to prove reaction-less EM drive technology in space?

50% chance

17
2828 comments
96
96 forecasters
Ambiguous

Tech Futures - 52 Conversation Starters

2
33 comments

What Is the Future of American Financial Surveillance?

10
11 comment

Space Sector โ€˜Greenificationโ€™

10
11 comment

Spacecraft Launchers and the Launcher Market

12
0 comments

The Future of Human Spaceflight

10
0 comments

Announcing the Sagan Space Tournament

19
1313 comments

Our Life Underneath a Chaotic Orbital Environment: The Relationship Between Space Debris and Space Utilization

11
0 comments

The Global Push to Return to the Moon: Predicting the Lunar Landings and Trends of the 2020s

10
0 comments

Private Citizen Space Travel: Participation, Place, and Price

8
0 comments

Orbital Allies: How Space Technology Fuels Sustainable Development and Climate Action

9
11 comment