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Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

01 Mar 2027

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

May 2033

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

50%chance
14% this week

When will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise (MMLU)?

15 Sep 2025

Economic Impacts of Artificial General Intelligence

10
6 comments6
AI Progress Essay Contest

Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?

Anthropic / Claude 4 Opusresult: No
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra5%
OpenAI / GPT-53%

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

7%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

20%chance

In the coming months, will a robot/AI injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm?

resultNo