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Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

Q1 AI Benchmark Results: Pro Forecasters Crush Bots

14

Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Cyber risk levels?

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

Key Factor

China starts a war with Taiwan

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Key Factor

China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI

Will a paper with an AI as an author be published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

Will a major AI lab claim in 2025 that they have developed AGI?

Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?