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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

95%chance
3% this week

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

15%chance
20% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Forecast revealed in 53 minutes

Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?

Key Factor

Israel attacked Iran's capital

resultYes

Key Factor

Israel attacked Iran's capital

Contributed by the Odborný Predikční Tým community.

If there is a violent attack by an individual in the EU with 50 or more victims in the next 5 years, how likely is it that they will be followers of the ideology:

Contributed by the QH Forecasting Community community.

condition

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

2 forecasters
if yes
if no

When will Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic?

Jul 2031

When will Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic?

Feb 2046
no comments0
QH Forecasting Community

The Expansion of Executive War Powers

6
3 comments3
Metaculus Journal Archives

Ukraine Conflict Update for Monday, 2022-03-14

13
1 comment1
Ukraine Conflict

Intersections between nuclear risk and AI

5
no comments0
Nuclear Risk Tournament

Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?

10%chance