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Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

73%chance

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2026?

4%chance

Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2029?

30%chance

By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?

18%chance

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

10%chance

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

23%chance

When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit?

Mar 2048

When will Australia commission its first nuclear-powered submarine?

May 2040

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

80%chance

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Forecasting Nuclear Risk in 2022

34
7 comments7
Ukraine Conflict