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Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?

Key Factor

Effective Israeli missile defense

Key Factor

Effective Israeli missile defense

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

1,000result: Yes

Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?