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ForbesScientific AmericanTimeVoxYale NewsNature

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

3%chance
17% this week

Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?

9%chance
11% this week
condition

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2035)

if yes
if no

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

Will Russia attack a European NATO member before 2035?

1 comment1

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2041?

77%chance
4% this week

Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?

Key Factor

Effective Israeli missile defense

resultYes

Key Factor

Effective Israeli missile defense

Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

50%chance
5% this week

Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?

25%chance

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Anthropic first report that an AI system reached or surpassed CBRN risk level 4?

16 Dec 2028

Will the number of deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran reach the following thresholds before 2026?

100result: Yes
1,000result: Yes
3,00012%

Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?

resultYes