Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?132121 comments9292 forecasters
What will be the total OpenRouter token usage December 21-27, 2026?343T tokens (267T - 424T)388 comments7575 forecasters343T tokens (267T - 424T)
Will the 2026 suspected pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia result in 10 fatalities before 2027?1% chance51010 comments3535 forecasters1%chance
How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?5 bots (4 - 6)24242 comments120120 forecasters5 bots (4 - 6)
Which AI lab's model will rank #1 on the LMArena Text Arena overall leaderboard on October 1, 2026?174174 comments180180 forecasters
What will Japan's national influenza cases per sentinel institution be in the MHLW weekly report published around October 2, 2026?10.3 cases/institution (7.47 - 14)173173 comments173173 forecastersResolved7.17 cases/institution
How many of Tokyo's 31 health-center districts will exceed the influenza "alert" threshold (10 cases per sentinel institution) in the most recent weekly surveillance report as of October 2, 2026?19 districts (16 - 23)167167 comments166166 forecastersResolved10 districts
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?45222222 comments331331 forecasters
What will be the maximum weekly new hospital admissions per 100,000 for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?11111 comments1313 forecasters
What will WastewaterSCAN's national norovirus (GII) level category be on October 15, 2026?0 comments233233 forecasters
Which company will hold the #1 rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 17, 2026?148148 comments158158 forecasters
Where will GPT-6 Astra rank on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard on September 18, 2026?142142 comments151151 forecasters
What will the top score on the ARC Prize 2026 – ARC-AGI-3 Kaggle public leaderboard be on September 17, 2026?10.2% (8.17 - 13.8)137137 comments143143 forecastersResolved18.81%
What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?52.4% (34.9 - 77)11010 comments1111 forecasters52.4% (34.9 - 77)
What will Chhattisgarh's cumulative confirmed 2026 H1N1 (swine flu) case count reach in state Health Department data reported on or after September 17, 2026?Annulled0 comments150150 forecastersAnnulled
How many months behind the frontier will the best Chinese open-weights AI model be at the end of 2028?8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)0 comments55 forecasters8.32 months (6.63 - 10.4)
How many locally acquired Chikungunya cases will be reported in the European Economic Area in 2026?213 cases (188 - 268)11414 comments1212 forecasters213 cases (188 - 268)
Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?33% chance11212 comments9292 forecasters33%chance