2 comments
37 forecasters
When will Metaculus reach 3 million total forecasts? (Prizes inside)
Current estimate
04 Nov 2025
95 comments
87 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 18.80% on 2025-10-15 for the Metaculus question "Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?"?
resultNo
5 comments
7 forecasters
When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?
Current estimate
24 May 2027
0 comments
88 forecasters
What will be CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2026?
Low78.1%
Moderate (or medium or equivalent)18.8%
High (or above, such as Very High)3.1%
This question is closed for forecasting.