Will a human be #1 on the leaderboard of MarketPulse on August 25, 2026?result: no22 comments1717 forecastersResolvedNo
Will a bot beat all humans in the Summer 2026 Metaculus Cup?47% chance22323 comments129129 forecasters47%chance
Will ECDC/EFSA surveillance report at least one West Nile virus death in Europe for the 2026 season before 7 August 2026?result: yes130130 comments136136 forecastersResolvedYes
How many of the top 5 models on the LMArena Text Arena leaderboard will be Anthropic models on August 20, 2026?3 models (2 - 4)11 comment143143 forecastersResolved4 models
What will the average global surface air temperature be in 2026 relative to the pre-industrial baseline?1.47 °C (1.42 - 1.52)77 comments696696 forecasters1.47 °C (1.42 - 1.52)
What will be the rate of people (per 100,000) affected by natural disasters in the following years?899 comments8080 forecasters
When will weekly new hospital admissions peak across respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?01 Jan 2027 (20 Dec 2026 - 16 Jan 2027)244 comments77 forecasters01 Jan 2027 (20 Dec 2026 - 16 Jan 2027)
How many locally acquired Chikungunya cases will be reported in the European Economic Area in 2026?74.9 cases (54.2 - 110)144 comments77 forecasters74.9 cases (54.2 - 110)
Will a case of Bundibugyo Ebola disease be first confirmed in the US before July 2027?10% chance155 comments1111 forecasters10%chance
What will be the maximum weekly new hospital admissions per 100,000 for the following respiratory illnesses in the 2026/27 season?133 comments77 forecasters
What proportion of influenza A will be H1N1 during the 2026/27 influenza season?32% (13.6 - 61.5)133 comments77 forecasters32% (13.6 - 61.5)
How many cumulative confirmed Ebola cases will the DRC report by July 10, 2026 in the 2026 Bundibugyo virus outbreak?1741 value (1561 - 1955)11 comment107107 forecastersResolved1792 value
Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?57% chance522 comments3434 forecasters57%chance
What will be total annual investment (in 2021 USD) in AI companies in the world in the listed years?1699 comments8181 forecasters
Respiratory Outlook July Update: Screwworm continues US spread as Ebola outbreak surges in DRC40 comments
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?10% chance51010 comments5757 forecasters10%chance