Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?30% chance242323 comments333333 forecasters30%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?7% chance181717 comments198198 forecasters7%chance
How does the level of existential risk posed by AGI depend on its arrival time?241919 comments108108 forecasters
Will the African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) become Extinct before 2100?20 comments1010 forecasters
Will the Sumatran Rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis) become Extinct before 2100?344 comments1010 forecasters
When will the first baby of an extinct vertebrate species be born or hatched naturally?Jun 2044 (Jun 2036 - Oct 2060)92525 comments2525 forecastersJun 2044 (Jun 2036 - Oct 2060)
If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?5% chance60 comments5252 forecasters5%chance
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?50% chance655 comments8787 forecasters50%chance