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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will the Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) become Extinct before 2100?

2
0 comments
9
9 forecasters

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

2.5% chance

82
391391 comments
1.7k
1.7k forecasters
2.5%chance

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3
22 comments

CTs Deep Learning Revenue โ†’ CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2
55 comments
22
22 forecasters

Will the Yangtze Giant Softshell Turtle (Rafetus swinhoei) become Extinct before 2100?

2
22 comments
6
6 forecasters

Will the Komodo Dragon (Varanus komodoensis) become Extinct before 2100?

2
11 comment
4
4 forecasters

Will the Asian Elephant (Elephas maximus) become Extinct before 2100?

3
11 comment
5
5 forecasters

Will the Vaquita (Phocoena sinus) become Extinct before 2100?

2
22 comments
3
3 forecasters

Will the African Forest Elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) become Extinct before 2100?

2
0 comments
10
10 forecasters

Will the Sumatran Rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis) become Extinct before 2100?

3
44 comments
10
10 forecasters

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030 โ†’ CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

4
11 comment
19
19 forecasters

CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe โ†’ CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

2
33 comments
18
18 forecasters

When will the first baby of an extinct vertebrate species be born or hatched naturally?

Jun 2044 (Jun 2036 - Oct 2060)

9
2525 comments
25
25 forecasters
Jun 2044
(Jun 2036 - Oct 2060)

Will there be fewer Kea parrots in 2030 than in 2020?

62% chance

3
55 comments
36
36 forecasters
62%chance

A Global Catastrophe This Century

24
22 comments

If a global catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

5% chance

5
0 comments
52
52 forecasters
5%chance