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condition

CTs Deep Learning Revenue

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

68%
68%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

1%
1%
3
1 comment1
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

Will humans go extinct before 2100?

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

1%chance

Key Factor

Possibility of AI smarter than humans, with goal of wiping out humans

condition

OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?

97 forecasters
if yes
if no

Human Extinction by 2100

1%
1%

Human Extinction by 2100

2%
2%
14
11 comments11
AI Safety

Will the Vaquita (Phocoena sinus) become Extinct before 2100?

Complete Extinction94%
Wild Extinction95%

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

4%chance

A Global Catastrophe This Century

24
2 comments2
Metaculus Journal Archives

Will the Black Rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) become Extinct before 2100?

Complete Extinction14%
Wild Extinction65%

If humanity goes extinct, will another intelligent civilization evolve while Earth remains habitable?

40%chance
condition

CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030

16 forecasters
if yes
if no

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

67%
67%

CTs AI Extinction Before 2100

7%
7%
4
no comments0
Conditional Trees: AI Risk

If humanity goes extinct due to an AI catastrophe before 2300, when will the last human die?

Aug 2048