Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?44212212 comments311311 forecasters
Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.311 comment
Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?30% chance11111 comments8585 forecasters30%chance
Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?28% chance11 comment1717 forecasters28%chance
When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?Aug 2046 (Dec 2034 - 2089)104141 comments118118 forecastersAug 2046 (Dec 2034 - 2089)
Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?99% chance327272 comments301301 forecasters99%chance
Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before 2027?25% chance233 comments4747 forecasters25%chance
When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?28 Sep 2027 (23 Jan 2027 - 24 Mar 2030)77 comments1212 forecasters28 Sep 2027 (23 Jan 2027 - 24 Mar 2030)
What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?96.6 (94 - 98.4)53535 comments751751 forecasters96.6 (94 - 98.4)
In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won?355 comments2626 forecasters
How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?0.349 (0.252 - 0.426)172424 comments3636 forecasters0.349 (0.252 - 0.426)
Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?0.1% chance101616 comments130130 forecasters0.1%chance
What percentage of seats will Prosperity win in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?89.3% (86.7 - 91.9)32929 comments101101 forecastersResolved90.123%
Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?85% chance181818 comments151151 forecasters85%chance
What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?91.6% (82.5 - 99.9)12020 comments728728 forecasters91.6% (82.5 - 99.9)
What will be the mean of the top 10 scores on the Metaculus 2026 Peer Accuracy leaderboard?40.3 points (38.2 - 42.3)-122 comments77 forecasters40.3 points (38.2 - 42.3)
Will any AI system beat a team of human pros in a forecasting tournament before 2030?98% chance51616 comments240240 forecasters98%chance
What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?92020 comments7272 forecasters
Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-12-19 for the Metaculus question "Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?"?result: no9090 comments8989 forecastersResolvedNo