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What will be the highest score achieved by any model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on December 31, 2026?

67 Index Score (65 - 69)

88

88 forecasters

67 Index Score

(65 - 69)

By how many points will Kiko Llaneras beat the Community Prediction in the 2026 Fall Metaculus Cup?

2

50

50 forecasters

Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?

20% chance

17

17 forecasters

20%chance

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

45

222 222 comments

335

335 forecasters

Will online prediction markets cease to exist before 2100?

0.1% chance

-2

3

3 forecasters

0.1%chance

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

18

97

97 forecasters

Before 2032, will a G7 central bank or finance ministry credit an AI forecasting system as a key reason for a major preemptive policy action to avert a potential economic crisis or instability?

32% chance

1

104

104 forecasters

32%chance

What will be the mean of the top 10 scores on the Metaculus 2026 Peer Accuracy leaderboard?

41 points (39 - 42.5)

-1

8

8 forecasters

41 points

(39 - 42.5)

Will the model weights of any AI system developed by a frontier AI lab be stolen or leaked before January 1, 2030?

11

11 forecasters

In what year will the XTX AI International Math Olympiad main prize be won?

3

26

26 forecasters

Will AI Cause Human Extinction? Pro Forecasters Land at 7.5%. Our Most Dedicated X-Risk Forecasters Say 22%.

3

What will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?

96.4 (94.4 - 98.3)

5

757

757 forecasters

96.4

(94.4 - 98.3)

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

12 Jul 2027 (13 Jan 2027 - 24 Jun 2030)

12

12 forecasters

12 Jul 2027

(13 Jan 2027 - 24 Jun 2030)

Labor Automation Forecasting Hub: October 2026 Updates

1

What will world real GDP growth per capita be in the following years?

14

79

79 forecasters

What percentage of seats will Prosperity win in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?

89.3% (86.7 - 91.9)

3

101

101 forecasters

Resolved90.123%

Will there be a breakthrough in accurately predicting protein structure before 2031?

99% chance

32

304

304 forecasters

99%chance

Will a prediction market outperform Nate Silver's forecasts for the Super Tuesday primaries?

result: yes

11

37

37 forecasters

ResolvedYes

What percent of the top 5 human average score will the best bot score in ACX 2026?

92.2% (83.2 - 100)

1

734

734 forecasters

92.2%

(83.2 - 100)

When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

Mar 2047 (Dec 2034 - 2093)

10

118

118 forecasters

Mar 2047

(Dec 2034 - 2093)

Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-12-19 for the Metaculus question "Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?"?

result: no

89

89 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

9

72

72 forecasters