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8
comments
19
forecasters
Will SpaceX successfully land the following on Mars before 2035?
An uncrewed craft
80%
At least one person
40%
At least one person—and return them to Earth
20%
1 other
45
comments
379
forecasters
When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?
Current estimate
Apr 2044
124
comments
2.5k
forecasters
Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?
17%
chance
448
comments
4.4k
forecasters
Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?
0.1%
chance
18
comments
206
forecasters
Will we find life on Mars by 2050?
12%
chance
14
comments
109
forecasters
Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
17%
chance
3
comments
17
forecasters
How many humans will have landed on the moon before anyone does on Mars?
Current estimate
44.2 people
17
comments
91
forecasters
When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?
Current estimate
>3000
condition
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023?
Resolved:
No
20
forecasters
if yes
if no
Date First Human Lands on Mars
Mar 2035
Resolved:
Annulled
Date First Human Lands on Mars
Mar 2037
9
0
comments
20
20
forecasters
condition
SpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023?
Resolved:
No
36
forecasters
if yes
if no
SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
62%
62%
Resolved:
Annulled
SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
54%
54%
7
6
6
comments
36
36
forecasters
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