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Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?

result: yes

27

143

143 forecasters

ResolvedYes

How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?

39 cases (31 - 52)

15

15 forecasters

39 cases

(31 - 52)

Will WHO Disease Outbreak News publish a new mpox-related item before May 1, 2026?

result: no

108 108 comments

109

109 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?

4419 (3821 - 5202)

14

74

74 forecasters

4419

(3821 - 5202)

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

19

19 forecasters

How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?

104k (80.3k - 160k)

37

218

218 forecasters

104k

(80.3k - 160k)

Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?

result: no

17

102

102 forecasters

ResolvedNo

What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?

376 (322 - 440)

13

69

69 forecasters

376

(322 - 440)

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?

3437 (3302 - 3612)

6

32

32 forecasters

3437

(3302 - 3612)

How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?

272 (186 - 432)

16

86

86 forecasters

272

(186 - 432)

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?

31.2k (27.4k - 35.3k)

6

30

30 forecasters

31.2k

(27.4k - 35.3k)

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?

3404 (3271 - 3592)

4

33

33 forecasters

3404

(3271 - 3592)

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?

19.3k (18.3k - 20.5k)

12

72

72 forecasters

19.3k

(18.3k - 20.5k)

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

12

45

45 forecasters

How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?

28.1 (27 - 29.5)

14

90

90 forecasters

28.1

(27 - 29.5)

What will be the R0 of monkeypox according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?

1.34 (1.1 - 1.69)

14

49

49 forecasters

1.34

(1.1 - 1.69)

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?

>30k (28.5k - >30k)

10

11

11 forecasters

>30k

(28.5k - >30k)

What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?

310 (271 - 365)

8

52

52 forecasters

310

(271 - 365)

What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?

8.15 (6.23 - 10.8)

1

36

36 forecasters

8.15

(6.23 - 10.8)

How many confirmed mpox cases for the following years (2025+)?

1

4

4 forecasters

What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?

4404 (4010 - 4865)

1

24

24 forecasters

4404

(4010 - 4865)

Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?

result: no

10

45

45 forecasters

ResolvedNo

When will the next Public Health Emergency of International Concern be declared by the WHO?

04 Oct 2022 (21 Jul 2022 20:18 - 04 Jul 2023)

8

29

29 forecasters

04 Oct 2022

(21 Jul 2022 20:18 - 04 Jul 2023)

Will the 7-day average confirmed mpox cases in 2024 exceed the peak 7-day average confirmed mpox cases from the 2022-2023 outbreak by September 30, 2024?

47.5% chance

33

33 forecasters

Annulled