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Metaculus is an online forecasting platform focusing on topics of global importance.

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Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?

result: yes

27
4141 comments
143
143 forecasters
ResolvedYes

Which countries will confirm Clade I mpox infections before January 1, 2025?

2121 comments
19
19 forecasters

Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?

result: no

17
2323 comments
102
102 forecasters
ResolvedNo

How many human infections of monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?

104k (80.3k - 160k)

37
7979 comments
218
218 forecasters
104k
(80.3k - 160k)

Will WHO Disease Outbreak News publish a new mpox-related item before May 1, 2026?

result: no

108108 comments
109
109 forecasters
ResolvedNo

What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?

376 (322 - 440)

13
2121 comments
69
69 forecasters
376
(322 - 440)

What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?

4419 (3821 - 5202)

14
2626 comments
74
74 forecasters
4419
(3821 - 5202)

Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?

result: no

4949 comments
27
27 forecasters
ResolvedNo

How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?

28.1 (27 - 29.5)

14
2626 comments
90
90 forecasters
28.1
(27 - 29.5)

How many Clade I Mpox cases will have been reported in the US before 2027?

38 cases (29 - 48)

1010 comments
15
15 forecasters
38 cases
(29 - 48)

What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year?

12
5757 comments
45
45 forecasters

Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?

result: no

4
99 comments
39
39 forecasters
ResolvedNo

Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?

result: no

5555 comments
32
32 forecasters
ResolvedNo

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?

19.3k (18.3k - 20.5k)

12
2626 comments
72
72 forecasters
19.3k
(18.3k - 20.5k)

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?

3404 (3271 - 3592)

4
44 comments
33
33 forecasters
3404
(3271 - 3592)

What percentage of monkeypox cases in the UK will be among gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men?

96 (93.1 - 97.7)

6
66 comments
44
44 forecasters
96
(93.1 - 97.7)

Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?

result: no

10
99 comments
45
45 forecasters
ResolvedNo

What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?

8.15 (6.23 - 10.8)

1
88 comments
36
36 forecasters
8.15
(6.23 - 10.8)

What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?

310 (271 - 365)

8
77 comments
52
52 forecasters
310
(271 - 365)

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?

31.2k (27.4k - 35.3k)

6
44 comments
30
30 forecasters
31.2k
(27.4k - 35.3k)

Will the Africa CDC declare a public health emergency of continental security (PHECS) before September 1, 2024?

99% chance

2
66 comments
5
5 forecasters
Annulled

How many deaths due to monkeypox will be estimated to have occurred before 2023, worldwide?

272 (186 - 432)

16
2727 comments
86
86 forecasters
272
(186 - 432)

What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?

3437 (3302 - 3612)

6
66 comments
32
32 forecasters
3437
(3302 - 3612)

What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?

4404 (4010 - 4865)

1
77 comments
24
24 forecasters
4404
(4010 - 4865)