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How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates?
October 1, 2030
12.7M
October 1, 2025
3.46M
December 31, 2023
1.61M
2 others
5
84 comments
84
Will Mohammed bin Salman become the next king of Saudi Arabia?
Closed
80%
55 forecasters
13
8 comments
8
Will the James Webb Telescope Launch prior to 2020?
Resolved :
No
1%
143 forecasters
13
5 comments
5
Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?
Closed
45%
829 forecasters
113
41 comments
41
Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2019?
Resolved :
No
29%
204 forecasters
32
9 comments
9
Will the Event Horizon Telescope picture of the shadow the Sagittarius A* agree with the prediction of general relativity ?
Resolved :
Ambiguous
75%
80 forecasters
11
19 comments
19
Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?
Resolved :
No
50%
74 forecasters
16
18 comments
18
Will SpaceX's Starlink start deployment by 2021?
Resolved :
Yes
99%
167 forecasters
25
25 comments
25
Would a Democratically controlled House impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections?
Resolved :
Yes
27%
301 forecasters
32
48 comments
48
Will 2048-bit RSA be broken before 256-bit ECC?
Closed
53%
79 forecasters
6
2 comments
2
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