Question Feed | Metaculus

0 comments

2026 US Midterms Tracker

5 comments

17 forecasters

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

59%chance

26.2% this week

19 comments

105 forecasters

Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country before Sept 2026?

98%chance

86% this week

Key Factors

No signals of surprise travel in summer 2026
Summer vacation closes July travel window

9 comments

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

23 comments

88 forecasters

Countries President Trump will visits before the end second term?

Australia18%

Brazil22%

Chinaresult: Yes

Cuba4%

13 others

8 comments

56 forecasters

Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters opening weekend domestic gross?

Toy Story 5143M

Minions & Monsters79.2M

5 comments

58 forecasters

Voter Turnout in 2026 Algerian Elections?

Current estimate

27.4%

Key Factors

Recent voting figures were heavily revised
2021 turnout reset baseline to low 20s

6 comments

63 forecasters

Will Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?

42%chance

10% today

2 comments

8 forecasters

How many confirmed cases in the 2026 Ebola outbreak?

Sep 1, 20261288

Outbreak end3524

1 comment

6 forecasters

US gov cease int'l arrival processing at major airport for 3+ days before 2027?

20%chance

0 comments

9 forecasters

Will the People's Republic of China blockade Taiwan before September 1, 2026?

15%chance

0 comments

25 forecasters

Will Trump be impeached again?

Democratic Congress75%

Republican Congress9%

Split Congress54%

27 comments

124 forecasters

Will Claude Mythos be released before Sep 2026?

80%chance

12% this week

Key Factors

Ambiguous corporate language may mislead release
Identity verification may enable Mythos release
US government interest adds release obstacles

5 comments

7 forecasters

Rankings in the 2026 IMO?

China3.37

United States of America3.61

Republic of Korea4.5

Japan12.1

106 others

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental USA before September 1, 2026?

50%chance

14 comments

137 forecasters

2026 Colombian Presidential Election Winner?

Iván Cepeda19.8%

Abelardo de la Espriella80%

Paloma Valencia0.1%

Another candidate0.1%

Key Factors

De la Espriella gaining street momentum
Violence depressing rural turnout
Desire for focus on security

0 comments

2 forecasters

What will be the avg 30-yr fixed rate mortgage for the week ending Aug 27, 2026?

At least 6.25% but less than 6.50%12.8%

At least 6.50% but less than 6.75%23.4%

At least 6.75% but less than 7.00%23.4%

Greater than 7.00%23.4%

2 others

2 comments

16 forecasters

What will be NSF's discretionary budget for FY2028?

Democratic Congress6.22B

Republican Congress5.17B

Split Congress5.94B

0 comments

7 forecasters

Will Trump & Putin speak on the phone with each other before August 1, 2026?

60.8%chance

0 comments

16 forecasters

U.S. Democracy Threat Index value for 2027-2028?

Democratic Congress39.9

Republican Congress43.4

Split Congress41.3

32 comments

145 forecasters

US/EU restriction on data center grid before Sep 2026?

38.8%chance

8.8% this week

Key Factors

techxplore.com:
New York state legislature passes one-year data center moratorium
Hochul's potential veto could delay moratorium

0 comments

23 forecasters

Will Missouri's 2026 Amendment 3 pass?

38%chance

9% this week

0 comments

15 forecasters

# of confirmed Article III judges in 2027-2028?

Democratic Congress6.5

Republican Congress12.7

Split Congress10.7

0 comments

31 forecasters

Democrat wins 2026 gubernatorial election in these states?

Ohio45%

Nevada51%

Kansas34%

Iowa60%

13 others