Question Feed | Metaculus

0 comments

2026 US Midterms Tracker

5 comments

24 forecasters

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

65%chance

32.1% this week

20 comments

111 forecasters

Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country before Sept 2026?

98%chance

88% this week

Key Factors

No signals of surprise travel in summer 2026
Summer vacation closes July travel window

9 comments

Announcing: the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 Winners!

23 comments

90 forecasters

Countries President Trump will visits before the end second term?

Australia18%

Brazil22%

Chinaresult: Yes

Cuba4%

13 others

16 comments

57 forecasters

Tampa sulphur price in June 2026?

Current estimate

656 USD/metric ton

2 comments

5 forecasters

How many NWS animal cases will there be in the US before 2026?

Current estimate

32.7 animal cases

8 comments

62 forecasters

Toy Story 5 and Minions & Monsters opening weekend domestic gross?

Toy Story 5146M

Minions & Monsters81.7M

1 comment

2 forecasters

General elections in Spain before May 2027?

55%chance

2 comments

5 forecasters

OpenAI or Anthropic — higher valuation on Jan 1, 2027?

OpenAI42%

Anthropic58%

0 comments

7 forecasters

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range by July 30, 2026?

25%chance

5 comments

64 forecasters

Voter Turnout in 2026 Algerian Elections?

Current estimate

27.8%

Key Factors

Recent voting figures were heavily revised
2021 turnout reset baseline to low 20s

5 comments

7 forecasters

Rankings in the 2026 IMO?

China3.37

United States of America3.61

Republic of Korea4.5

Japan12.1

106 others

2 comments

9 forecasters

How many confirmed cases in the 2026 Ebola outbreak?

Sep 1, 20261442

Outbreak end3680

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental USA before September 1, 2026?

48.4%chance

1 comment

6 forecasters

US gov cease int'l arrival processing at major airport for 3+ days before 2027?

20%chance

7 comments

10 forecasters

Which SCOTUS Justices will side with Monsanto in Monsanto Co v. Durnell?

Samuel A. Alito, Jr.94%

Brett M. Kavanaugh92%

Clarence Thomas82%

Amy Coney Barrett76%

5 others

6 comments

68 forecasters

Will Atlas browser be released for Windows before September 1, 2026?

34%chance

0 comments

7 forecasters

Will Trump & Putin speak on the phone with each other before August 1, 2026?

59.5%chance

0 comments

12 forecasters

Will the People's Republic of China blockade Taiwan before September 1, 2026?

8%chance

0 comments

2 forecasters

What will be the avg 30-yr fixed rate mortgage for the week ending Aug 27, 2026?

At least 6.25% but less than 6.50%12.8%

At least 6.50% but less than 6.75%23.4%

At least 6.75% but less than 7.00%23.4%

Greater than 7.00%23.4%

2 others

33 comments

21 forecasters

US National Home Price Index - Monthly

0 comments

6 forecasters

Will the June 2026 U of MI Consumer Sentiment # be > than it was for May 2026?

50%chance

0 comments

8 forecasters

Will Starlink's website show South Africa having Starlink by Sep 1, 2026?

50%chance