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Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030?

228 forecasters

26

AI Demonstrations

When will an AI pass the laugh test?

10

AI Demonstrations

Will AI be able to watch a movie and tell you accurately what is going on before 2030?

275 forecasters

24

AI Demonstrations

Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

408 forecasters

39

AI Demonstrations

Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

314 forecasters

33

AI Demonstrations

Will more than two of Gary Marcus' proposed AI achievements come to pass before 2030?

172 forecasters

32

AI Demonstrations

Will an AI be able to take arbitrary proofs from the mathematical literature and convert them into a symbolic form suitable for verification before 2030?

131 forecasters

25

AI Demonstrations

In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?

Resolved :No90%

3

AI Demonstrations

When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?

Resolved :13 May 202416 Nov 2024

7