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Introducing the US Democracy Threat Index

11
0 comments
U.S. Democracy Threat Index
12 comments
55 forecasters

Will a suspected shooter in the assassination of political activist Charlie Kirk be neutralized before September 19, 2025?

resultYes
3 comments
44 forecasters

What percentage of games will end in a decisive result in the open section of the 2025 FIDE Grande Swiss ?

Current estimate
46.9%
0 comments
4 forecasters

When will a synthetic biology platform effectively degrade pesticides in field conditions?

Current estimate
Nov 2035
0 comments
37 forecasters

Will Nepal swear in a new prime minister before September 20, 2025?

Revealed in 3 days
42 comments
139 forecasters

Which grouping will the Prime Minister of France belong to on December 31, 2025?

Together for the Republic76.5%
Other10%
No Prime Minister3.5%
0 comments
4 forecasters

Will U.S. authorities transfer any current or former U.S. citizen to a prison abroad in the following years?

4 comments
6 forecasters

Will the White House direct federal agencies to target three or more high-profile presidential critics in the following years?

1 comment
7 forecasters

Will the U.S. federal government open formal investigations of at least 5 top-50 universities in the following years?

1 comment
7 forecasters

Will two or more U.S. state or federal judges or legislators be victims of murder or attempted murder by non-state actors in the following years?