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📈Market Pulse Q2 Winners: Evidence of Edge

5
1 comment1
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q2

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win77.6%
Nathan Young win18.4%
Other4.1%

Market Pulse 25Q3 Opens: Will Q2’s Edge Hold?

4
no comments0
Market Pulse Challenge 25Q3

What will be the maximum weekly rate of new hospital admissions per 100,000 people for RSV for the following age groups in the 2025-2026 season?

0-4 years24.4
≥65 years8.04

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

resultYes

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

resultYes

Key Factor

Potential retaliation if Khamenei is harmed

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

35%chance

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

What proportions of influenza A subtype sequences will CDC report during the 2025-2026 season?

H3N250.1
H1N148.9
H50.122

Contributed by the Risk Threshold Forecasting community.

When will Google first report that an AI system has reached or surpassed the following Machine Learning R&D risk levels?

00

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

4%chance
26% this week