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77 comments
101 forecasters

When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?

Current estimate
19 Jun 2027
625 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
Jul 2033
11 comments
36 forecasters

Will any 100% AI-generated legislation be passed in the U.S. before 2040?

55%chance
22% this week
39 comments
62 forecasters

What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?

9 comments
40 forecasters

At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No
Sundar Pichairesult: No
Sam Altmanresult: No
54 comments
163 forecasters

Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?

resultYes
18 comments
113 forecasters

Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?

3%chance
2 comments
13 forecasters

Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?

75%chance
15% this week
10 comments
90 forecasters

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

2%chance
51 comments
173 forecasters

When will an original, wholly AI-generated feature film rank #1 on a popular streaming service?

Current estimate
27 Jul 2029