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Artificial Intelligence
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77
comments
101
forecasters
When will AI first be revealed to be superhuman at the board game Diplomacy?
Current estimate
19 Jun 2027
625
comments
1.8k
forecasters
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
Jul 2033
11
comments
36
forecasters
Will any 100% AI-generated legislation be passed in the U.S. before 2040?
55%
chance
22%
this week
39
comments
62
forecasters
What will NVIDIA's market capitalization be on the last day of the following years?
9
comments
40
forecasters
At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments?
Mark Zuckerberg
result:
No
Sundar Pichai
result:
No
Sam Altman
result:
No
2 others
54
comments
163
forecasters
Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?
result
Yes
18
comments
113
forecasters
Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?
3%
chance
2
comments
13
forecasters
Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?
75%
chance
15%
this week
10
comments
90
forecasters
Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?
2%
chance
51
comments
173
forecasters
When will an original, wholly AI-generated feature film rank #1 on a popular streaming service?
Current estimate
27 Jul 2029
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