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613 comments

1.7k forecasters

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Current estimate

06 Jun 2028

Key Factors

↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
China starts a war with the land of Taiwan BEFORE said weakly general AI
↓ grid/permit delays & export controls on HBM/nodes

9 comments

40 forecasters

Signees favoring pause on huge AI experiments

Mark Zuckerbergresult: No

Sundar Pichairesult: No

Sam Altmanresult: No

Dario Amodeiresult: No

Demis Hassabisresult: No

5 comments

36 forecasters

5Y after AGI, richest person in world?

Current estimate

>1.5T $

Key Factors

nature of industry will change, technology will be considered like public infrastructure
redistribution of wealth through policy
value of the billionaire

2 comments

22 forecasters

AI labs safety red-teaming by June 30, 2024?

OpenAIresult: No

Google Deep Mindresult: No

Inflectionresult: No

Metaresult: No

Anthropicresult: No

7 comments

80 forecasters

When AI concern go mainstream in US?

Current estimate

14 Jan 2028

20 comments

23 forecasters

Access to Anthropic Large Language Model

Partially OpenAmbiguous

Publicresult: Yes

654 comments

1.9k forecasters

Date of Artificial General Intelligence

Current estimate

Dec 2032

Key Factors

↑ reliable >50-step agent chains with published evals
AI companies dont get funding (due to AI bubble bursting)
AI demonstrates the ability to apply knowledge from training to novel or unseen scenarios without crashing or failing

14 comments

65 forecasters