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kokotajlod
Predictions
710
Comments
384
Member Since
January 2016
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Overview
Track Record
Medals
Comments
Questions
Questions by kokotajlod
23 comments
126 forecasters
By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?
7%
chance
22 comments
29 forecasters
If and when this graph is extended to 10^14 parameter models trained on 10^14 elapsed tokens of similar-quality data, will the 10^14 parameter learning curve have slowed down substantially?
30%
chance
23 comments
77 forecasters
When will credible sources reveal the existence of something similar to DALL-E but significantly bigger?
community
12 Jan 2025
result
More than 28 Mar 2026
6 comments
84 forecasters
Will EVE Online die by 2020?
result
No