96.729 | Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024? | Binary |
96.119 | Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024? | Binary |
91.992 | Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th? | Binary |
90.316 | Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023? | Binary |
84.650 | Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024? | Binary |
84.550 | Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024? | Binary |
75.958 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) | Binary |
75.698 | Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself? | Binary |
71.336 | Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023? | Binary |
70.591 | Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023? | Binary |
69.495 | Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024? | Binary |
59.649 | Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22? | Binary |
59.096 | Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
58.104 | Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
56.423 | Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023? | Binary |
48.340 | How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023? | Continuous |
48.330 | Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June? | Binary |
38.335 | Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024? | Binary |
19.455 | Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
19.309 | Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023? | Binary |
15.186 | Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023? | Binary |
15.150 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu) | Binary |
13.739 | Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023? | Binary |
11.839 | Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024? | Binary |
6.451 | Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024? | Binary |
3.493 | Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024? | Binary |
2.573 | Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
1.553 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş) | Binary |
1.553 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan) | Binary |
1.553 | Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce) | Binary |
0.022 | Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024? | Binary |
-7.790 | How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located? | Continuous |
-40.187 | Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023? | Binary |
-41.268 | Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023? | Binary |
-52.522 | Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023? | Binary |
-128.651 | Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023? | Binary |