mattvdm

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

12.85	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
78.587	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
42.786	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
41.462	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
37.722	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
36.266	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
29.677	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
28.144	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
25.857	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
24.922	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
19.599	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.087	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
18.025	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
17.686	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
17.304	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
15.764	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
14.663	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
13.103	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
11.724	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.566	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
11.492	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
10.715	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
7.203	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.831	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.535	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
6.278	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
4.993	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.730	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.070	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.078	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.485	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
1.931	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.872	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
0.119	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-1.814	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-4.357	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
-7.824	How many papers published in 2023 will discuss metagenomic sequencing?	Continuous
-47.394	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary