SimonM

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

8.931	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
176.454	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
120.440	How many quantum computing patents will China have filed before 2024?	Continuous
96.190	How many of the companies in China's 'AI Quartet' (not counting SenseTime) will be public before 2024?	Continuous
67.863	What rank will "Improving Sino-Western Coordination on Global Catastrophic Risk" be on 80,000 Hours's "highest-impact career paths" list on January 1, 2024?	Continuous
58.570	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
48.706	What will be the market cap of Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent in 2023?	Continuous
45.425	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
37.708	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
35.861	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
29.348	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
26.499	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
26.308	What will be the number of unmanned aircraft sightings (UAS) in 2022?	Continuous
22.450	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.962	What will be the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage in 2022?	Continuous
21.619	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
21.171	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
21.143	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.499	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
16.332	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
15.811	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
15.439	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
15.324	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
15.151	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.736	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
14.143	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
13.827	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.763	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
13.084	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
12.054	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
11.894	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
11.651	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Gas/Oil Pipeline)	Binary
11.105	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
9.696	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.644	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
8.796	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
8.579	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
8.084	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
7.921	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
7.684	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
7.617	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
6.848	Will Holden's Bet with Zvi about Omicron resolve ambiguously?	Binary
6.477	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
6.450	When will Boris Johnson no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?	Continuous
6.274	Will China adopt any legislation or regulations to prevent contamination of the environment with antimicrobials by 2024?	Binary
6.153	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
5.798	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
5.083	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
4.827	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.667	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
4.618	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.277	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Aviation)	Binary
3.950	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Nuclear Energy)	Binary
3.872	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
3.775	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Meatpacking)	Binary
3.733	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
3.096	Will Peter Daszak be the president of EcoHealth Alliance on January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.656	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.237	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.605	In 2023, what will the cost-effectiveness of the Against Malaria Foundation be, according to GiveWell?	Continuous
1.394	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
0.990	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
-0.120	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
-0.394	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-2.259	Will the Social Democrats hold a position in government after the next Danish general election?	Binary
-2.397	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
-2.626	Which of these US infrastructure sectors will be hit by a ransomware attack by May 30, 2023? (Water Treatment)	Binary
-2.925	How many entities will be allowed to use blockchain applications in China by 2024?	Continuous
-3.058	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-3.780	What percentage of people in low-income countries will have recieved at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-5.443	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
-5.743	How many satellites will be deployed in 2022?	Continuous
-6.106	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
-6.279	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-7.450	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
-8.037	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-8.349	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-10.659	Will China have approved cultivated meat for human consumption by 2024?	Binary
-12.386	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
-13.434	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-17.522	When will the next major bridge collapse occur in the USA?	Continuous
-18.043	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
-44.955	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-64.926	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-252.196	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary