mooball

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

6.071	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
81.661	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
69.523	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
53.203	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
41.310	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
40.450	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
38.047	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
26.391	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
24.837	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
22.639	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
20.092	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
19.990	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
18.901	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
17.903	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
16.726	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
14.138	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
12.846	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
12.820	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
12.677	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
12.489	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
9.150	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.008	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
6.975	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
5.512	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
4.747	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.173	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
3.083	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
2.967	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.690	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
0.764	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.282	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-2.703	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-4.236	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-5.303	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-6.076	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-7.911	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-9.247	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.315	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-31.581	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
-57.869	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
-58.713	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-63.967	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-79.089	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary