paleink

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

11.84	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
62.838	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
58.135	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
39.412	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
38.396	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
37.780	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
37.451	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
36.069	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
34.058	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
33.980	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
32.300	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
29.827	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.019	What will be the annual number of objects launched into space in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
27.645	How many nuclear weapons will there be in world stockpiles in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
24.761	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
22.457	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
22.042	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
20.907	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
20.653	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
19.818	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
18.244	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
17.899	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
16.984	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
16.227	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
16.075	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.125	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
15.064	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
14.350	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
13.600	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
13.521	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
12.623	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
12.308	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
12.301	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
11.820	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
10.057	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
8.689	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.861	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
7.465	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
7.313	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
6.108	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
6.003	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
5.322	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.148	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
5.012	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.898	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
4.436	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
3.825	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.775	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
3.695	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
3.179	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
2.747	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.453	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
2.412	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-1.876	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-6.578	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
-7.754	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-10.342	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-16.079	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
-22.691	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-38.292	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
-118.963	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous