Prodicus

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

14.18	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
91.245	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
55.588	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
48.766	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
46.328	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
43.670	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
38.838	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
34.979	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
29.430	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
28.735	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
25.964	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
22.039	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
21.737	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
21.181	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
20.958	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
19.539	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
19.448	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
18.854	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
18.627	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.684	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
17.671	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
17.482	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
17.207	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
17.080	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
16.302	What will China's Corruption Perception Index level be in 2023?	Continuous
16.188	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
13.802	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
13.421	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
12.937	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
11.624	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.925	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
10.817	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
10.416	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
10.087	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
9.684	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
9.543	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
9.462	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.408	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
8.921	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
8.869	Depending on Ukraine striking targets in Russian territory, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukraine strikes)	Binary
7.930	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
7.376	Depending on the US supplying Ukraine with an ATACMS, Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (ATACMS provided)	Binary
6.157	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
6.095	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
5.774	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
5.300	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
4.673	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
4.267	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
3.040	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
2.916	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
2.787	Depending on Ukraine re-taking control of Kherson, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (Ukrainian Control)	Binary
2.756	Depending on Ukraine gaining territory in Crimea, will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine before 2024? (< 50 km^2)	Binary
2.299	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.231	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.837	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
0.803	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
0.749	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
0.081	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
0.037	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
0.022	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.019	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.017	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.014	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.012	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
-0.022	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
-0.103	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
-4.755	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary