8 User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

9.594	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
67.643	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
66.804	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
54.735	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
54.565	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
50.222	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
46.051	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
39.685	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
31.237	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
29.344	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
29.322	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
28.959	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
24.382	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
23.615	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
21.671	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
20.972	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
20.069	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
19.867	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
19.333	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
18.190	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
17.888	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
17.426	Will Iran disempower its Guidance Patrol "modesty police" before 2024?	Binary
16.725	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
16.647	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
16.262	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
16.023	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
15.672	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
15.032	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
14.700	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
14.413	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
14.382	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
14.305	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
14.173	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
13.966	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
13.773	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
12.899	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
12.725	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
12.244	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be available for free public use on Jan 31, 2023?	Binary
11.350	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
11.098	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
10.775	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
10.508	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
10.268	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
10.259	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
10.216	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
10.155	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
9.890	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
8.372	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
8.214	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.138	Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?	Binary
8.015	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
7.406	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
7.246	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
7.229	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
7.079	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
6.465	Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?	Binary
5.838	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
5.679	Will Tweets be inaccessible on Twitter.com for any seven days starting before 2024?	Binary
5.670	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
5.480	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
5.430	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
5.206	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
5.052	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
4.820	Will Tsinghua University bar some students from returning to the dorms for the 2023 Spring Semester?	Binary
4.675	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
4.577	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
4.577	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
4.254	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
4.065	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
3.760	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
3.397	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
2.857	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
2.325	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
1.656	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
1.434	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
1.411	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
1.236	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
1.226	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
1.199	Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?	Binary
1.026	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
0.990	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
0.577	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.305	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
0.190	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
0.065	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
0.020	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
-0.388	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
-1.047	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
-1.372	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-1.714	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
-3.273	If the Australian "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" Referendum is held before 2026, will it pass?	Binary
-4.888	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
-6.333	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-6.850	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
-8.511	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
-9.224	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
-9.830	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
-10.233	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
-10.487	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
-13.827	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-16.674	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-21.245	Will the 3.47 second Rubik's Cube world record be broken by July 1, 2023?	Binary
-27.281	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-46.280	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary