CivilMarigold

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Peer Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to others. Users are ranked by the sum of their Peer scores, divided by the sum of their Coverages. This creates a weighted average, where each prediction is counted proportionally to how long it was standing. To reduce the impact of luck, all forecasters start with a prior of 30 questions with a score of 0. Learn more here.

10.93	Weighted Average Score
Score	Question	Question Type
71.211	When will Zelenskyy next be pictured in a suit on his Instagram?	Continuous
61.106	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary
55.413	When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?	Continuous
53.815	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
44.676	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (July 1, 2023)	Binary
42.091	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
41.472	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
34.030	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
32.102	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
24.778	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
23.965	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
23.043	Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
23.042	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
21.770	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
21.500	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
19.233	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
16.210	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
15.715	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
15.643	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
13.822	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
12.407	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
11.864	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
11.704	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
10.622	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
10.403	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
9.866	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
9.689	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
9.103	Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?	Binary
8.157	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
7.780	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
7.632	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before March 1, 2023?	Binary
7.163	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
6.696	Will Israel arm Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
6.525	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
6.351	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
5.434	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
5.234	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
4.368	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
4.294	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
4.252	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
4.018	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
3.077	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
2.901	Will Turkey declare sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
2.246	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
1.962	Will the US provide Ukraine with any fighter aircraft?	Continuous
1.790	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
1.541	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
1.222	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.779	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
0.685	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
0.684	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
0.649	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
0.299	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
-0.591	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
-0.759	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
-1.513	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize before 2024?	Binary
-1.776	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-2.183	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
-2.254	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
-3.011	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
-6.161	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
-8.103	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
-10.250	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
-13.955	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
-16.478	Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?	Binary
-17.709	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
-18.857	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary