jaketchm

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

945.4	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
97.314	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
74.165	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
67.557	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
63.012	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
57.570	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
52.340	Will Moon Express successfully scout the moon by 2021?	Binary
50.959	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
50.556	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
39.682	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
39.363	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
39.079	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
38.389	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
35.473	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
30.236	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
29.833	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
25.378	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
22.192	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
20.738	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
20.224	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
16.696	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
16.162	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
15.999	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
14.988	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
14.133	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
14.064	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
13.779	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
13.761	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
13.132	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
12.552	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
11.585	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
11.559	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
11.061	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
10.789	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
10.712	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
10.274	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
9.983	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
9.766	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
9.761	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
9.649	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
9.607	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
9.248	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
7.565	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
7.003	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
6.692	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
6.523	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
6.439	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
6.355	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
5.744	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
5.692	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
5.592	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
5.334	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
4.760	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
4.432	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
4.346	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
4.135	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
4.041	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
2.852	Airships by 2019?	Binary
2.812	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
2.304	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
2.294	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
2.142	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
1.991	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
1.900	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
1.829	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
1.547	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
1.378	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
0.988	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
0.780	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
0.549	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
0.533	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
0.504	By November 2nd, 2020, will the ten cities with the highest number of surveillance cameras per 1,000 people all be located in China?	Binary
0.408	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
0.402	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
0.383	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
0.049	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
-	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
-3.236	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
-4.223	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
-4.800	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-5.308	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-5.881	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-7.221	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-10.169	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-18.963	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
-20.132	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-21.189	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-26.208	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-35.612	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-53.935	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-71.360	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary