PeterWildeford

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4991	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
98.281	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
97.685	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
97.621	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
97.621	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
96.590	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
95.899	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
94.363	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
92.832	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
92.779	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
92.542	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
92.415	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
91.539	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
89.655	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
88.254	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
88.108	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
87.410	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
87.353	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
86.908	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
85.989	Will a cyber action or series of cyber actions trigger NATO’s Article 5 in 2022?	Binary
84.949	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
84.277	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
82.062	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
80.672	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
80.643	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
78.209	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
76.342	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
76.332	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
74.088	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
74.080	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
73.053	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
69.957	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
67.066	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
65.741	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
65.741	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
65.741	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
65.740	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
65.740	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
65.740	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
65.739	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
65.739	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
65.585	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
64.253	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
62.928	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
61.036	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
59.379	Will there be a successful cyberattack on the 2022 FIFA World Cup?	Binary
59.106	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
57.552	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2022)	Continuous
57.192	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
56.794	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
56.734	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
56.469	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
55.141	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
54.998	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
54.433	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
54.197	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
54.017	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
49.023	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
49.023	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
49.023	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
49.023	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
49.023	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
49.023	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
47.628	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
46.961	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
46.246	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
45.986	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
45.899	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
44.131	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
44.069	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
42.217	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
42.093	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
41.220	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
40.414	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
39.300	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
38.957	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
38.573	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
37.415	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
37.248	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
36.022	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
32.429	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
31.299	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
31.277	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
30.848	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
29.898	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
29.277	Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best)	Binary
28.744	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
27.306	Will a cyberattack target a major system's data integrity before July 1, 2022?	Binary
25.662	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
25.322	Will it become public that the United States launched a cyber attack between Jan 1, 2022 and April 30, 2022 against infrastructure associated with Russian cyber operators or proxies?	Binary
24.326	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
24.300	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
22.419	Will Brandy Bottone, the pregnant woman pulled over in Texas for an HOV lane violation, be found guilty in court?	Binary
22.391	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
19.672	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
19.260	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
19.032	Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?	Binary
16.848	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
16.406	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
16.148	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
15.070	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
14.728	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
13.202	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
13.137	Will UK initiate its rota load shedding plan during 2022-2023 winter?	Binary
13.123	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
12.128	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
11.649	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
9.891	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
9.477	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
9.429	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
7.613	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
7.008	Will PredictIt default on its obligation to allow its users to withdraw funds before 2023?	Binary
6.522	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
5.929	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
5.819	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
5.615	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
5.560	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
5.517	Will any of the ongoing BioNTech mRNA cancer vaccine trials proceed to Phase III trials in 2022?	Binary
5.322	Will Solana be in the top-10 cryptocurrencies by market cap on December 31, 2022?	Binary
5.084	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
4.735	Will Russian or Belarusian troops cross the land border between Belarus and either the Volyn or Rivne oblasts before 2023?	Binary
4.667	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
4.603	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
4.576	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
4.499	Will the US Government designate Russia a "State Sponsor of Terrorism" by 2023?	Binary
4.304	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
3.901	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
3.307	Will China make a successful, major cyberattack on Taiwanese critical infrastructure before December 31, 2022?	Binary
3.261	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
3.246	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut an undersea internet cable before 2023?	Binary
3.246	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
3.197	Will the Senate Commerce committee reach an agreement on preemption for a federal data security and data privacy law in 2022?	Binary
3.192	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
3.153	Will any single cyberattack in 2022 result in damages over $10 billion?	Binary
3.101	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
3.082	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
3.040	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
2.975	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
2.948	Will the number of Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) exceed 60 on any single day in 2022?	Binary
2.856	Will a DDoS attack of greater than 3.5TPS occur in 2022?	Binary
2.704	[short-fuse] Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
2.638	Will a cyberattack directly cause one or more deaths in 2022?	Binary
2.580	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
2.106	Will Pakistan default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
2.060	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
1.983	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
1.929	Will a popular online identity verification service be breached in 2022?	Binary
1.784	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
1.761	Will an impactful penetration of a software supply chain be discovered by a party other than themselves in 2022?	Binary
1.196	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
0.752	Will the Israeli Labor Party run alone?	Binary
-0.375	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
-0.802	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
-1.567	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
-2.194	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-3.882	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-3.924	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-4.246	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-4.398	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
-4.647	Will Environment and Climate Change Canada register a white Christmas – snow on the ground on December 25th – for Toronto?	Binary
-5.936	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-11.403	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
-12.352	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
-18.747	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
-19.818	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
-21.987	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
-22.604	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-28.695	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-41.443	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-43.549	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
-44.448	Keynesian Groupy Contest: interquartile range (KBCs are the best)	Binary
-54.217	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
-63.108	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-64.256	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-76.915	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-89.228	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-97.961	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
-254.571	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary