PeterWildeford

User

Duration:10 years

Time Period:2016-25

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4353	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
128.308	If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?	Continuous
120.978	Which image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?	Continuous
107.861	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?	Continuous
91.558	Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025?	Binary
90.925	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
90.666	Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?	Binary
89.838	Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?	Binary
87.255	Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?	Binary
86.245	Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?	Binary
85.882	What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?	Continuous
85.603	Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?	Binary
85.335	Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?	Binary
83.317	Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?	Binary
83.012	When will the VIX index climb above 50?	Continuous
82.578	What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)	Continuous
81.365	Will Trump flee the United States?	Binary
80.059	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
80.018	Will a Wealth Tax be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
78.373	When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?	Continuous
77.690	What will be the effective tax rate for a hypothetical 1 million dollar long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?	Continuous
75.582	If Biden becomes president, will there be an expansion of the Keystone Pipeline system of at least 100 km in length by the end of 2024?	Binary
73.700	Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?	Binary
72.433	Will a geoengineering act of Congress become US federal law by the end of 2024?	Binary
71.692	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?	Continuous
70.614	Will the United States land humans on the moon again before 2025?	Binary
70.566	If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?	Binary
70.097	Will Mike Pence be elected president of the United States in 2024?	Binary
68.670	How will the Longbets "bioerror" question resolve?	Binary
67.353	Will the Second Amendment of the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?	Binary
66.677	Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?	Binary
66.274	Will a charity primarily operating in China become an ACE Top Charity in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
65.749	Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?	Binary
64.665	Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?	Binary
64.373	How many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?	Continuous
63.809	Will the United States test a nuclear weapon before 2023?	Binary
60.254	When will GTA VI be released in the US?	Continuous
59.709	What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
59.112	Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?	Binary
58.126	Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?	Binary
58.115	Will any of the 20 most valuable public companies in the United States (As of January 2019) file for bankruptcy protection before 2025?	Binary
58.021	Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?	Binary
57.779	What will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?	Continuous
56.811	How much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?	Continuous
56.690	Will any Member State leave the Eurozone before 2025?	Binary
56.629	Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?	Binary
55.795	What fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?	Continuous
51.731	Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?	Binary
50.795	Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?	Binary
50.543	Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?	Binary
49.328	Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?	Binary
48.758	What percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?	Continuous
46.348	Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
44.665	Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?	Binary
41.651	How much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?	Continuous
41.091	Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?	Binary
40.839	Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?	Binary
40.450	What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?	Continuous
39.116	Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated by January 1, 2024?	Binary
38.594	Will the number of people in extreme poverty in 2020 be lower than the number in 2015?	Binary
36.977	Will the XENON1T experiment report a detection of dark matter or other new physics before 2023?	Binary
36.254	How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?	Continuous
35.932	Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?	Binary
35.048	What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?	Continuous
34.035	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?	Continuous
32.688	Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?	Binary
31.719	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2025?	Binary
31.347	Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?	Binary
30.044	Will an official diagnosis of dementia be announced for Joe Biden before 2023?	Binary
29.033	Will the UK housing market crash before July 2023?	Binary
27.829	Will Metaculus Inc. host a prediction market prior to 2024?	Binary
27.320	If the James Webb Space Telescope is launched, will it succeed in transmitting cosmological data?	Binary
27.088	What will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?	Continuous
26.870	Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2023?	Continuous
26.771	Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?	Binary
26.090	When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?	Continuous
24.767	Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?	Binary
24.456	When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?	Continuous
24.447	Will Cuba still be a communist state in 2023?	Binary
24.380	Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?	Binary
24.174	Will Nord Stream 2 be completed before 2025?	Binary
23.665	Will the 2024 US presidential election also be considered fraudulent by the losing party?	Binary
22.206	Will the U.S. get rid of the penny by 2025?	Binary
21.822	Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27, 2024?	Binary
20.373	Will the Dutch medical consortium recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
20.333	How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the following dates? (December 31, 2023)	Continuous
19.175	Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?	Binary
18.876	What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?	Continuous
18.317	When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?	Continuous
17.354	When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?	Continuous
16.642	Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
14.728	Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?	Binary
13.042	Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?	Binary
12.079	Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?	Binary
11.922	What will the upper limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
11.137	Longbets series: will the June, 2025 Labor Force Participation Rate and unemployment rate, reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, be, respectively above 60 percent and below 7.5 percent?	Binary
11.002	Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before October 31, 2024?	Binary
10.370	How much will the total U.S. plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
10.367	Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?	Binary
10.275	Will Germany overtake the US in the share of new EV registrations by 2025?	Binary
10.092	Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by December 31, 2025?	Binary
8.823	Will there be at least 200 companies developing technologies to defeat aging by 2025?	Binary
7.928	Will a S&P500 tech boom surpass the dotcom bubble for one quarter or more before 2025?	Binary
7.547	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Binary
7.257	Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?	Binary
6.733	Will "best practice" in treating Coronavirus involve administering Vitamin D before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
6.664	Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?	Binary
6.659	When will be the next S&P 500 correction?	Continuous
5.650	When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?	Continuous
4.987	Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?	Binary
4.629	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump)	Binary
4.533	Will WeWork file for bankruptcy protection before January 1, 2025?	Binary
4.292	Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?	Binary
4.246	How much will the total U.S. plant-based foods market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of USD?	Continuous
4.048	A major United States earthquake by 2023?	Binary
4.012	What will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023?	Continuous
3.966	Will Elon Musk (eventually) lose his appeal?	Binary
3.516	What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?	Continuous
3.398	Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?	Binary
3.032	What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?	Continuous
2.481	Will an AI system do credibly well on a full math SAT exam by 2025?	Binary
0.784	When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?	Continuous
0.688	When will the VIX index fall below 20?	Continuous
0.335	When will 1 Terabyte MicroSD cards fall below $100USD?	Continuous
0.282	Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will we see evidence that Piracetam is a more effective Alzheimer's treatment than Memantine by 2021?	Binary
0.273	Will no evidence for a new light (17 MeV) particle be independently published before 2021?	Binary
0.111	What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates? (December 14, 2024)	Continuous
-	Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land a spacecraft on the Moon, if they do so before 2026?	Binary
-	When the first company reaches a $4 trillion market cap, will it be worth at least double what it was the year before?	Binary
-	Will another paper authored by Phil Rushton be retracted before 2022?	Binary
-2.531	Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?	Binary
-5.713	Will a recession cause "suicides by the thousands"?	Binary
-7.765	When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?	Continuous
-12.052	In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?	Continuous
-15.784	Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?	Binary
-27.791	What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?	Continuous
-29.116	Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2024?	Binary
-29.815	If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended before 2024?	Binary
-30.348	Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?	Binary
-31.984	At the end of 2025, will any of GiveWell's top charities perform mass deworming as their primary intervention?	Binary
-34.504	Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?	Binary
-54.011	Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?	Binary
-62.372	When will the COVID-19 epidemic subside in Russia?	Continuous
-96.974	Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?	Binary
-116.264	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-177.906	What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?	Continuous