babtras

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.211k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
95.686	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
92.188	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
88.698	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
83.325	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
81.988	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
80.541	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
76.971	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
75.977	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
75.715	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
73.493	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
71.581	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
68.763	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
66.840	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
66.104	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
64.222	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
62.885	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
61.917	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
60.403	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
59.499	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
58.248	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
56.416	Will Boeing fly astronauts to ISS before SpaceX?	Binary
55.396	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
55.201	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen?	Binary
54.933	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
54.933	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
52.214	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
51.738	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
47.600	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
45.018	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
43.057	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
43.016	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
42.121	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
41.932	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
41.619	Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019?	Binary
40.982	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
40.029	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
40.020	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
37.878	Will Polarized 3D vision tech be used on self-driving cars by 2019?	Binary
37.795	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
35.346	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
34.065	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
33.931	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
33.596	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
33.589	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
33.227	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
33.116	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
31.264	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
30.288	Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020?	Binary
30.163	Will NASA's InSight Mars Mission Launch in 2018?	Binary
29.382	Will Sci-Hub be online in August 2018?	Binary
28.009	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
26.522	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
26.005	Winner in 2017 of the Lunar X-prize?	Binary
25.774	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
25.327	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
24.313	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
20.890	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
20.640	Will Facebook's Libra initiative launch by Oct 1st 2020?	Binary
19.783	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
19.473	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
19.136	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
18.877	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
18.558	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
18.234	Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18?	Binary
17.500	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
16.441	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
14.158	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
13.275	Will Tulsi Gabbard drop out before the Hawaii primary?	Binary
11.382	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
10.503	Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?	Binary
7.937	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
7.906	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
5.292	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
3.903	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
2.920	When will the next gene therapy treatment receive approval from the FDA?	Continuous
0.000	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
-	A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious	Binary
-	Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves?	Binary
-	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
-	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
-0.278	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
-3.601	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-7.089	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-7.911	How large will the largest single grant made by Open Philanthropy in 2020 be?	Continuous
-8.922	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
-11.852	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-13.579	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-16.244	Airships by 2019?	Binary
-25.048	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
-26.974	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-27.443	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
-27.942	Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen?	Binary
-28.408	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
-29.991	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
-31.619	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
-33.690	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
-37.978	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-38.902	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
-41.791	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
-41.881	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
-42.512	Will the banana plague reach Latin America?	Binary
-45.034	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
-47.028	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-50.202	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-50.241	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
-50.661	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
-52.639	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-54.165	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-56.166	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
-59.418	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-64.270	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-65.020	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-68.478	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-70.728	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
-79.244	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
-79.706	A revival of interest in muon-catalyzed fusion?	Binary
-92.735	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-99.376	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-154.341	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
-173.509	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary