chris.j.cundy

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.902k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
90.831	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
87.858	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
87.599	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
86.401	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
84.676	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
76.412	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
73.505	Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?	Binary
72.204	Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?	Binary
72.052	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
71.884	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
71.837	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
69.917	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
67.078	Major cuts in US science funding in 2018?	Continuous
66.476	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
65.074	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
59.337	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
56.434	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
56.006	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
55.720	How impeached will Trump be?	Continuous
54.540	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
52.518	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
51.590	When will the next vacancy arise for a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States?	Continuous
49.284	Will Elon Musk step down as CEO of Tesla by mid-2018?	Binary
49.011	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
48.493	Will the WHO classify aging as a disease by 2018?	Binary
46.851	Will radical new "low-energy nuclear reaction" technologies prove effective before 2019?	Binary
45.788	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
44.328	Will the 2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines start recommending a low carbohydrate diet as an option?	Binary
44.268	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
41.638	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
41.109	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
38.060	What will be the price of a barrel of crude oil at Christmas 2018?	Continuous
36.220	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
33.662	Will AirBnB will go public before 2019?	Binary
33.611	Will the nuclear triad be modernized with mobile or exotically-based ICBMs?	Binary
33.491	To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B?	Binary
32.673	Will Theranos get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood tests by the end of 2018?	Binary
31.677	Will Lockheed Martin and Skunkworks announce a successful test of a break-even compact fusion reactor by April 2019?	Binary
31.555	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
31.210	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
30.022	Will the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election have been elected to any other previous significant political office?	Binary
27.807	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
27.579	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
26.281	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
25.471	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
23.662	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
23.354	Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years?	Binary
20.994	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
20.776	Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm?	Binary
20.420	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
19.275	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
18.849	Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample?	Binary
16.165	A surge in large earthquakes in 2018?	Binary
13.535	Will public domain day happen in the U.S. in 2019?	Binary
13.362	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
13.210	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
8.615	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
7.513	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
7.428	How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be?	Binary
6.678	All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020?	Binary
6.267	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
5.897	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
5.566	Will new evidence emerge for the frequency of solar superflares?	Binary
4.707	Are we in a simulated reality? Part I	Binary
2.014	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
1.836	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
1.814	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
0.780	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
0.706	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
0.562	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
0.470	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
0.318	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
0.307	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
0.282	First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?	Binary
0.196	Will Cory Booker drop out before the New Jersey primary?	Binary
-	To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?	Binary
-	Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?	Binary
-	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
-	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-0.670	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary
-1.080	A is in the I of the beholder #2: Wow this AI is very realistic	Binary
-3.649	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
-6.386	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
-14.001	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-16.378	Will a Self-Driving Car be available for ride service by the end of 2018?	Binary
-16.852	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
-17.808	Airships by 2019?	Binary
-25.362	Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?	Binary
-29.755	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
-31.531	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
-31.682	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
-41.741	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
-44.706	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
-45.052	When will the "large brain preservation" prize be awarded by the Brain Preservation Foundation?	Continuous
-51.317	1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020?	Binary
-69.579	When will Tesla deliver the 115,000th Model 3?	Continuous
-88.094	Will the next Ebola outbreak kill less than 1,000 people?	Binary
-103.291	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-104.548	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary