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User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2019

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

1.932k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
96.263	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2020?	Binary
93.986	Will SpaceX start testing a Starship (BFS) before 2020?	Binary
88.245	Will Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found in 2019?	Binary
83.650	Will there be more ArXiv AI publications in the “Computation and Language” subcategory than in the “Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition” subcategory in the calendar year 2019?	Binary
80.221	Will the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC be ongoing after February 2020?	Binary
78.555	Will Czech Republic's Prime Minister Andrej Babiš experience a significant leadership disruption between 20 June 2019 and 22 August 2019?	Binary
76.066	Will Mitt Romney challenge Donald Trump in the Republican Primaries for the 2020 Presidential Election?	Binary
75.301	How many civilians will be killed in Syria in September 2019, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR)?	Continuous
73.508	How many MPs will the "Independent Group" have after the next UK general election?	Continuous
71.418	Will the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) have an IPO before 30 November 2019?	Binary
70.620	What will be the best sales rank number in 2019 for the book Cosmological Koans?	Continuous
68.437	Will Algeria hold Presidential Election in 2019?	Binary
68.227	Will Joe Biden run for President in 2020?	Binary
67.380	Will the UK revoke Article 50 by June 23 2020?	Binary
67.014	If Donald Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, will the U.S. Senate take the referral to a vote?	Binary
65.935	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q3 - Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018	Binary
63.334	Will President Trump meet Kim Jong-un for a second time before April 2019?	Binary
61.481	How many seats will the People's Party of Canada win in the next Canadian election?	Continuous
61.080	How many seats will the Labour and Co-operative Parties win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
60.936	Will Election Betting Odds report a >60% chance of a Trump 2020 presidential election victory by November 30, 2019?	Binary
56.206	How many Republican U.S. senators will vote to convict on at least one article of impeachment, if Trump is impeached by the House during his first term?	Continuous
55.877	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in August 2019?	Binary
53.693	When will Astralis stop being the number one ranked CS:GO team?	Continuous
53.668	Will the United States continue to be the country with the largest share of computational power in the November 2019 TOP500?	Binary
53.409	Will the current Dutch cabinet keep a majority in the Dutch senate after the election on May 27 2019?	Binary
51.726	Will the identity of the author of anonymous NYT editorial become known in 2019?	Binary
51.258	Will US troops intervene in Venezuela?	Binary
50.324	Will any piece of art be sold for more than $450.3 million in 2019?	Binary
50.211	Will Elon Musk still be CEO of Tesla on January 1, 2020?	Binary
47.734	Will either the Japanese or Norwegian government blame Iran for the June 2019 Gulf of Oman incident?	Binary
44.073	How many homicides will there be in London in 2019?	Continuous
43.527	Will the UK's Conservative Government fall before 2020?	Binary
43.473	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in 2019?	Binary
41.580	Will the current Ebola outbreak claim more than 1000 lives?	Binary
40.211	Will the number of Yellow-Vests-affiliated protesters in France decline?	Binary
39.147	What will be the IMDB score of The Expanse Season 4 one week after it has been aired?	Continuous
38.949	Will an EU country veto an extension of Brexit's deliberation before Oct 31st 2019?	Binary
36.067	Will Oman be removed from the EU list of non-cooperative tax jurisdictions between 20 June 2019 and 31 October 2019?	Binary
35.330	Will there be rioting in the UK or Gibraltar if the UK is still in the EU on 30 March 2019?	Binary
33.517	Before 30 November 2019, will it be announced that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement negotiations have concluded?	Binary
33.321	Will Carnegie Mellon be the top university accepted to NeurIPS 2019?	Binary
31.520	How many main characters will survive Game of Thrones?	Continuous
31.387	How many seats will the Conservative and Unionist Party win in the next UK general election?	Continuous
30.455	Will Richard Branson fail to go to space on July 20th 2019?	Binary
25.975	Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Less support for psychiatric commitment among the committed?	Binary
23.355	Before 30 November 2019, will an Ebola health worker be injured or killed in an attack against an Ebola facility inside the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, or Tanzania?	Binary
19.459	Will Tesla have a higher market capitalization than Ford on 01 January 2020?	Binary
17.646	How much will be pledged on the Metaculus Patreon on its halfaversary?	Continuous
17.644	Will the UK leave the EU without a deal by April 12th?	Binary
17.639	When will Jeremy Corbyn cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
16.988	Will the US government shut down on February 16th?	Binary
16.296	If the UK participates in the European Parliament elections in 2019, what percentage of the popular vote will the Brexit Party win?	Continuous
16.212	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be indicted?	Binary
12.980	Will the Chinese police or military intervene in Hong Kong in September 2019?	Binary
11.024	British Pound / Euro parity before January 1st, 2020?	Binary
10.152	By the end of 2019, will AlphaStar have won > 80% of its games against top players?	Binary
8.255	Between 23 May 2019 and 29 November 2019, will the IMF approve one or more tranches for release to Ukraine?	Binary
7.842	If Donald J. Trump is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives, how many articles of impeachment will be brought to the U.S. Senate?	Continuous
7.646	[Short Fuse] Will no Prime Minister of Italy be named in August 2019?	Binary
5.491	Will the next UK Parliamentary election held for the seat of Peterborough be won by the Conservative and Unionist Party Candidate?	Binary
4.185	Between 23 May 2019 and 30 July 2019, will the Spanish monarch appoint a President of the Government?	Binary
3.858	Falcon Heavy booster landing redux: How many boosters will Falcon Heavy Flight 2 land successfully?	Continuous
3.588	Before 30 November 2019, will Germany's Bundestag adopt a bill that would impose a fine on parents who refuse a measles vaccine for their children?	Binary
2.018	Will the Liberal Party of Canada win the most seats in the next Canadian general election?	Binary
-0.745	Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit $30,000 before it hits $20,000?	Binary
-0.967	How much will Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker make in its opening weekend?	Continuous
-4.892	Will OpenAI Five win against the reigning Dota 2 world champions OG?	Binary
-10.033	Will the S&P 500 end 2019 higher?	Binary
-10.433	When will Steven Universe: The Movie be released?	Continuous
-15.187	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q5 - No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019	Binary
-23.013	Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Are SSRIs Self-Rated More Effective for Depression Than Anxiety?	Binary
-25.078	What percentage of the Mueller report will be unredacted in its initial release by Barr's Department of Justice?	Continuous
-27.667	Will Brexit happen by end of day, October 31st, 2019?	Binary
-28.772	Will Iran execute or be targeted in a national military attack between 6 June 2019 and 5 October 2019?	Binary
-39.378	Will Chandrayaan-2 softly land on the moon in September 2019?	Binary
-42.515	Will PewDiePie be the first YouTuber to have 100M subscribers?	Binary
-59.164	Slate Star Codex Survey Mini-Series: Do Upper-Class Kids Later Attribute Success to Merit?	Binary
-62.930	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2019?	Binary
-64.713	Will the SAIDA Starcraft bot win the Student Starcraft AI Tournament?	Binary
-68.618	Attempted crewed Boeing CST-100 Starliner flight prior to 2020?	Binary
-70.269	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q1 - The United Kingdom will leave the European Union in 2019?	Binary
-93.854	Will the International Crisis Group report a deteriorated situation for Iran in July 2019?	Binary
-186.341	Best Penn Treebank perplexity of 2019?	Continuous