lukas.baker

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

972.9	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
84.985	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
72.569	A living thylacine (Tasmanian tiger) by 2020?	Binary
67.080	Will (some of) China's space station land on land?	Binary
66.053	Will the Token Taxonomy Act of 2019 become law?	Binary
56.448	Will online voting spread in the US before the next presidential election?	Binary
50.501	By 2021 will there be a court case testing the ability of a program, algorithm, or AI to be the sole partner in a US Limited Liability Corporation?	Binary
40.891	Will rapid rocket reusability be demonstrated by 2021?	Binary
40.459	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
33.543	Will North Korea attack another country by the end of 2020?	Binary
32.192	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
32.036	Will the US take military action in N. Korea?	Binary
30.707	Will President Trump fire (or request and accept the resignation of) Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve?	Binary
29.256	Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?	Binary
29.132	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
28.575	Will Donald Trump have a 50% approval rating at some point before the November 2018 mid-term elections?	Binary
26.233	How much will President Trump govern by decree?	Continuous
24.512	Will Donald Trump be president of the US in 2019?	Binary
23.539	Will SpaceX test a stainless-steel prototype Starship by February 1?	Binary
23.322	Will the Democrats nominate someone from Generation X for president in 2020?	Binary
20.283	Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?	Binary
19.248	Will Donald Trump face a significant primary challenge in 2020?	Binary
18.007	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
16.936	Will SpaceX Starship (with or without a booster) reach space before 2021?	Binary
16.478	Will North Korea test-launch an ICBM by the end of 2018?	Binary
16.027	Will the winner of the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses win the 2020 Democratic nomination?	Binary
15.760	Will Tesla go out of business before 2019?	Binary
14.970	Will one of the recall California Governor Gavin Newsom get the required validated signatures and trigger a recall election before Nov 2, 2020?	Binary
14.906	Confirmation that hominids existed in North America prior to 100,000 BC?	Binary
13.834	When will machine translation achieve a "word accuracy score" comparable to that of professional human translators?	Continuous
12.805	Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C?	Binary
12.537	Will there be a new all-time peak in google trends for "russia" by 2019?	Binary
10.593	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2018?	Binary
10.079	How low will sterling go relative to the Euro during the coming year?	Continuous
9.770	Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?	Binary
9.437	Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018?	Binary
9.277	Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?	Binary
8.664	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
8.303	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
6.661	Will Donald Trump Jr. be charged with a crime by Father's Day 2018?	Binary
6.584	A medical pathway to complete painlessness?	Binary
6.522	Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?	Binary
6.488	Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by 2020?	Binary
5.761	Will Tesla roll out the fully autonomous autopilot feature before 2021?	Binary
5.138	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
5.101	Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020?	Binary
5.013	Flying cars (finally) arriving by 2021?	Binary
4.996	Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018?	Binary
4.745	Will one or more additional interstellar asteroids be detected by 2019?	Binary
4.739	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
3.588	Vaquita porpoise declared extinct before 2020?	Binary
3.545	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
3.477	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
3.141	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q2 - US homicides will decline	Binary
2.195	When will a commercial enterprise put a human in orbit?	Continuous
2.179	By 2020, will one of the two major U.S. political parties nominate for some office someone who openly admits to being a Flat Earther?	Binary
1.985	Will EVE Online die by 2020?	Binary
1.857	Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?	Binary
1.571	Will Jared Kushner be charged with a crime by Tax Day 2018?	Binary
1.520	Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020?	Binary
1.412	Future Perfect 2019 Series: Q4 - More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018	Binary
1.383	Will an attack on the US electric grid cause a significant power outage by end of 2018?	Binary
1.362	Armed conflict in the South China Sea by 2019?	Binary
1.215	Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1?	Binary
0.597	Will "Rentberry" auction-style apartment rental model succeed?	Binary
0.583	Brexit negotiations completed by March 2019?	Binary
0.581	Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation?	Binary
0.471	Will Tesla's market cap fall in half in 2018?	Binary
0.029	Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020?	Binary
0.028	1 million European electric vehicles: when?	Continuous
0.017	Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020?	Binary
-0.010	Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?	Binary
-0.140	Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years?	Binary
-0.307	How wet will California's 2017-2018 winter be?	Continuous
-0.564	By 2020, will an implanted human embryo with artificially edited DNA be brought to term?	Binary
-0.584	Will quantum computing "supremacy” be achieved by 2025?	Binary
-1.589	How many millimeters thick will the thinnest phone be in 2020?	Continuous
-2.739	Who will win the 'Greatest of All Time' Jeopardy tournament with Ken Jennings, Brad Rutter, and James Holzhauer?	Continuous
-6.696	Will the Supreme Court set clear limits on partisan gerrymandering in 2018?	Binary
-10.700	What will Virgin Galactic be worth 6 months after it is listed on the stock market?	Continuous
-17.365	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary
-18.074	Will anyone be jailed by mid-2018 as a result of the Trump-Russia investigation?	Binary
-50.785	Will interest in Veganism further increase in 2018?	Binary
-62.023	By May 2020, will a single language model obtain an average score equal to or greater than 90% on the SuperGLUE benchmark?	Binary